Primary debates have been make or break for several campaigns, with some candidates rising to the occasion and making their way on a clear path to the White House.
With the first Republican primary debate of the 2024 election cycle only days away, candidates will be looking to seize the national spotlight to boost their campaigns. Here are three instances when primary debates helped boost a presidential campaign and a look at which 2024 candidates could benefit from a similar moment in the GOP debates.
UP FOR DEBATE: WHERE TRUMP, DESANTIS, AND REST OF REPUBLICAN 2024 FIELD STAND ON KEY ISSUES
1980 Republican primaries
Former California Gov. Ronald Reagan was widely expected to be the runaway candidate in the Republican presidential primaries in 1980 after nearly upsetting then-President Gerald Ford in the GOP nominating contest in 1976. However, the road to the Republican nomination was bumpier than expected for Reagan after losing to former CIA Director George H.W. Bush in the Iowa caucuses.
Ahead of the Republican primary in New Hampshire, a local newspaper, the Nashua Telegraph, had planned for a debate between Reagan and Bush, excluding the other Republican candidates. Because the debate was to exclude the other candidates, a court determined it would have been an illegal campaign contribution to Reagan and Bush by the newspaper, leaving the debate in jeopardy.
Reagan’s campaign ended up footing the bill in the newspaper’s place but wanted the other candidates included. When the debate was scheduled to begin, the former California governor tried to explain he wanted the other candidates to be allowed to participate in the debate, leading Nashua Telegraph editor Jon Breen, who was moderating the debate, to talk over him.
Breen, having enough of the talking over, demanded the sound technician turn off Reagan’s microphone. The request to silence Reagan’s microphone left the former governor angry, leading him to say into the microphone, “I’m paying for this microphone, Mr. Green!” The moment garnered cheers from the crowd and was a standout moment for Reagan’s lagging campaign.
Reagan would go on to win the Republican nomination and the presidency in 1980 and 1984, both in landslides.
For the Republican primaries in 2024, a candidate who will want to replicate this kind of shining debate moment would be Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). He was long viewed as the presumptive lead challenger to former President Donald Trump but has had lagging poll numbers, and questions have begun to mount on whether the Florida governor can live up to the hype for his candidacy.
2016 Republican primaries
Donald Trump was an outsider going into the 2016 Republican primaries, but his experience on television and as a celebrity constantly in the public eye helped boost him to the White House and through the 2016 GOP primary.
Trump’s sparring matches and nicknames for his fellow 2016 candidates helped him surge in the polls and maintain a strong lead on the field for nearly the entire primary. The exchanges between Trump and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush helped Trump decimate Bush’s campaign, which had once been viewed as the favorite to win the nomination.
Unsurprisingly, the candidate who will want to replicate this kind of performance is Trump. His 2016 primary debate performances kept him at the top of the headlines, and his unorthodox style led him to victory over a crowded GOP field. While the former president now has the built-in advantage of being the most recent GOP president, if he debates, he will want to perform similarly to the way he did in 2016 to show voters that he still has ‘it.’
2020 Democratic primaries
Then-California Sen. Kamala Harris had a breakout moment during the first Democratic primary debate of the 2020 cycle, where she offered a bruising critique of the front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden.
Harris hit Biden for his opposition to busing as a means to end racial segregation in schools. She invoked her experience as a black woman, claiming she was personally affected by the policy.
“I will direct this at Vice President Biden, I do not believe you are a racist and I agree with you when you commit yourself to the importance of finding common ground, but I also believe and it’s personal and it was hurtful to hear you talk about the reputations of two United States senator who is built their reputations and career on the segregation of race in this country,” Harris said.
“It was not only that, but you also worked with them to oppose busing. There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools and she was bused to school every day. That little girl was me,” she continued.
Biden tried to defend himself but committed an unforced error by ending his defense prematurely and saying his time was up.
“I supported the [Equal Rights Amendment] from the very beginning. I’m the guy that extended the Voting Rights Act for 25 years. We got to the place where we got 98 out of 98 votes in the United States Senate doing it. I’ve also argued very strongly that we in fact deal with the notion of denying people access to the ballot box. I agreed that everybody once they — anyway, my time’s up. I’m sorry,” Biden said.
Following the debate, Biden’s weak showing had him drop in the polls and Harris’s poll numbers jumped. Within days, Harris jumped from fourth place to second place, per the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Despite the surge by Harris, she would have her own debate flub months later and would drop out of the primary before the Iowa caucuses. Harris would later be selected as Biden’s running mate for the 2020 election, and they would go on to win the election.
The candidates in the 2024 Republican primary who will want to replicate Harris’s debate moment by landing a bruising blow on the front-runner will be former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), or entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. These candidates are within striking distance of gaining traction, and landing a blow on Trump or DeSantis could help clear a more viable path toward the nomination for their respective campaigns.
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The first Republican debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is scheduled for Wednesday at 9 p.m. and will be televised by Fox News. The Democratic Party is not hosting debates, as incumbent President Joe Biden is seeking reelection.
The Republican National Committee has confirmed that eight candidates have qualified for the debate as of Friday. The candidates who have qualified include Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Scott, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, Ramaswamy, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND). Trump has not confirmed if he will attend, but the others are expected to do so.
