Of the more than 100 million ballots expected to be cast in the November election, a small group of deciding voters will send either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump to another term in the White House — and a new poll indicates these voters are leaning toward Trump.
A Washington Post-Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University poll sought to examine the “deciders” in the election, which the newspaper believes will make or break the election for either candidate. The deciders surveyed include those who either voted in only one of the past two presidential elections, are ages 18 through 25, have registered to vote since 2022, are not definitely planning for either candidate this year, and/or have switched candidates between 2016 and 2020, according to the outlet.
The survey looked at the “deciders” and non-deciders in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with several key differences between the two groups of voters.
When asked if they were satisfied with the presidential candidates this year, the deciders overwhelmingly said they were either not too satisfied or not at all satisfied with the options (72%), compared to only 28% who said they were very or fairly satisfied with the candidates. Among the non-deciders, 58% said they were very or fairly satisfied, compared to only 42% who said they were not.
When asked whether they approved of Biden or Trump, a majority of deciders disapproved of both men, but Trump’s figures were significantly better than Biden’s. Deciders in the survey disapproved of Trump (53%-47%), while they disapproved of Biden (66%-34%).
Other polls have shown that while neither are favored by a majority of adults, Trump typically is viewed slightly more favorably. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows that among adults and voters, Trump has a net unfavorable rating of 11.1%, and Biden has a net unfavorable rating of 14.5%.
While the deciders and non-deciders diverge on several matters, when it comes to which candidate has support, they are fairly in-line.
When the deciders were asked how likely they are to vote for Biden, 59% said they would probably or definitely not vote for him, compared to 38% who said they would definitely or probably vote for him. When the same group was asked about Trump, 54% said they would probably or definitely not vote for the former president, and 44% said they would probably or definitely vote for Trump.
Despite leaning more toward Trump, when asked about some key topics, the deciding voters did not line up with Trump’s policies. On immigration, a majority think illegal immigrants should be offered a chance to apply for legal status (63%) rather than be deported (36%), and on abortion, 72% opposed the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, compared to only 28% who support it.
Recent findings have indicated that a majority of voters favor the mass deportation of illegal immigrants in contrast to this poll, with a CBS News-YouGov survey released earlier this month showing that 62% of voters favor the mass deportation of illegal immigrants.
One topic where the deciders and Trump are in line is with the economy, with 73% of them rating the country’s economy negatively and 63% rating the economy in their area negatively. The economy is also the top issue for the group.
Trump won the White House in 2016 off of swing voters, who then swung for Biden in 2020 but appear to be open to considering the former president again in 2024, according to other surveys alongside the Washington Post poll.
During most of the 2020 campaign, Trump trailed in the national polls and in key swing states he would go on to lose, but with this year’s campaign, he is leading in most polls both nationally and in swing states.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading Biden nationally, 45.8%-45%, while in the average for the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, Trump also holds leads of varying margins.
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His smallest aggregate lead in those key states is a 0.1-percentage-point advantage in Wisconsin, while his largest lead is in Nevada and North Carolina, where he holds a 5.3-point lead over Biden.
Trump is set to campaign in Racine, Wisconsin, on Tuesday. Next week, the first debate between Trump and Biden will be aired by CNN from Atlanta.
