Seven Senate Democrats hold what are considered to be the most vulnerable Senate seats heading into the 2024 election, particularly centrist Democrats who remain unpopular in their deep-red states that voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020.
A list compiled by Roll Call determined that seven Democratic, one independent, and two Republican senators are the top 10 most vulnerable seats next year. Some of the senators selected are likely targets to be replaced following federal investigations, while others’ tendency to remain in the middle is being capitalized on by Republicans who claim they do not represent the wishes of their constituents.
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Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) unsurprisingly tops the list. He recently pleaded not guilty to conspiring to act as a foreign agent on behalf of the Egyptian government, as well as other corruption-related charges. Menendez and his wife are accused of accepting bribes from New Jersey businessmen that included hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash, gold bars, a luxury vehicle, and more, according to the indictment.
Since then, Menendez’s reelection poll ratings have dropped significantly, and Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) has joined the race, outraising Menendez during the third quarter. Menendez has lost the support of many fellow Senate Democrats, as well, with a majority of them calling on him to resign. Still, Democratic allies and lawmakers worry that Menendez’s alleged crimes could more easily hand a seat to Republicans, which Democrats cannot afford to lose.
Other expected targets of Republicans are Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH). These embattled Democrats have been subjected to numerous GOP ads and campaign messaging trying to tie them to President Joe Biden as constant allies. In red states such as West Virginia and Ohio, Republicans are presenting Manchin and Brown as out-of-touch senators who need to be replaced with someone who represents the ideology of the state.
Manchin, in particular, is the last Democrat to hold statewide office in a Republican-dominated state, and his race is a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report. He has teased several possible plans for 2024: reelection, retiring, and even attempting a bid for the White House as a third-party candidate. Two Republicans are vying to face Manchin: Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) and Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), the state’s popular governor whose term runs out after this year. An Emerson College poll from mid-October found that Manchin is tailing Justice by 13 points.
In 2020, President Joe Biden had a -39 point margin in West Virginia, a -16 point margin in Montana, and a -8 point margin in Ohio, which contributes to the three respective home-state senators’ vulnerability. However, with some key wins for Democrats in Tuesday’s 2023 election in Ohio and other red states such as Kentucky, it is possible Brown, in particular, could campaign on that victory to build momentum in his Senate race against Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan, businessman Bernie Moreno, and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
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Unexpected additions to the top ten list are Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), two Republicans who come from traditionally red states. However, opponents looking to unseat the pair are looking to prove that the states can turn or are turning purple. Both are targets for their work on and off the job. For Cruz, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is running against him on the platform that Cruz spent more time podcasting and traveling than serving constituents when an ice storm struck the state in 2021.
Scott put himself in Democrats’ orbit as a target after he released a plan that would have required the reauthorization of federal programs such as Social Security and Medicare every five years by Congress. The plan drew heavy criticism from Democrats and President Joe Biden, who have continued to campaign on the claim that Republicans want to cut Social Security. Scott narrowly flipped his Senate seat from blue to red in 2018, so Democrats are hopeful they can go on the offense and get it back.
