In the 16 years that Sherrod Brown has represented Ohio in the Senate, abortion has been an issue that galvanizes Democrats in urban centers like Cleveland.
But abortion politics could present a new opportunity for the Democrat, now running for his fourth term, to make inroads in traditionally Republican strongholds after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year.
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Political spectators had questioned whether abortion still had salience one year after the high court returned the issue to the states. Ohio voters answered that question with a resounding “yes” last week, defeating a ballot measure that would have made it harder to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution.
The issue drove high turnout in deep-blue counties such as Cuyahoga and Franklin, but it was red counties’ rejection of the measure that suggested the issue could have new utility for Brown as a wedge issue.
The senator has performed well in many of those strongholds, running on a populist message that resonates with blue-collar workers who have increasingly gravitated to Republican candidates. In 2018, he recaptured counties like Trumbull and Mahoning that went for former President Donald Trump in 2016.
But maintaining those margins will prove decisive in what may be Brown’s toughest reelection bid yet. Running on abortion access, Democrats say, is one way for him to do it.
“I do think this issue and where Ohio voters are certainly helps him, knowing that a solid majority of voters support it, that 35% to 40% of Republicans support it and a solid majority of independents support it,” said Jeff Rusnak, a Democratic strategist who advised Brown’s House and first Senate campaigns.
“I think it is an issue that appeals much, much further beyond the base,” he added.
Last week’s election was not directly about abortion — the measure would have raised the bar to amend the state constitution from a simple majority vote to 60% — but the Ohio GOP placed it on the ballot ahead of a fall election on abortion rights.
The issue was pervasive in ad campaigns Democrats ran across the state, but the party also targeted independents and soft Republicans by arguing the GOP measure, added to the ballot on the final day it could qualify for an August special election, was an undemocratic “power grab.” While Republican operatives acknowledge the abortion rhetoric resonated with some GOP voters, it’s unclear how many were simply turned off by what they perceived as an unfair process.
Nonetheless, polling supports the idea that Republican voters are divided on women’s access to the procedure — 45% believe it should be legal, according to a July survey by Ohio Northern University. November will provide the clearer test of that degree of support.
Brown, one of the more progressive Democrats in the Senate, is an unabashed supporter of abortion rights and has the endorsement of groups like Planned Parenthood. He leaned into the Democratic win in last week’s special election, calling it a “big victory for Ohio,” and plans to campaign for abortion rights in the fall.
The approach is not surprising — his race will hinge, in part, on how well each party can motivate its base to turn out next year, and the specter of a national abortion ban is a boon for Democratic fundraising.
Brown sent out a volley of fundraising emails after the measure failed and made multiple appearances on left-leaning MSNBC.
But the way Brown sold the victory signals that he views his working-class appeal as equally, if not more, important to connecting with Republicans in 2024.
In those media appearances, Brown repeatedly pivoted back to his efforts “fighting for workers and the dignity of work.” He spoke of veterans healthcare and holding Wall Street executives “accountable” as much as he did abortion.
The strategy has served him well in a state that has trended red over his three decades in Congress. Brown today finds himself as the only Democrat elected to statewide office.
Republicans reject the idea that abortion will buoy his reelection prospects, citing GOP Sen. J.D. Vance’s 6-point victory in Ohio last year. Abortion featured prominently in the debates between Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan but failed to be the difference-maker seen in swing districts in the midterm elections.
With control of the Senate on the line, GOP strategists believe the issue will once again be subordinated to the economy and matters that voters rank as more important.
“Very few general election voters put abortion as their No. 1 concern. And those who do are roughly split between pro-life and pro-choice. So, when you take the pro-abortion voters into the mix, it winds up being a rather small slice of the electorate,” said Mark Weaver, a Republican strategist in Ohio who consulted for the anti-abortion Protect Our Constitution in last week’s special election.
National Republicans see their path to a Senate majority as running through Ohio and plan to invest heavily to unseat Brown, who won his 2018 race by 6 points.
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Three Republicans are competing to challenge him, each of whom the National Republican Senatorial Committee feels could win the general election.
So far, the organization has attempted to tie him to President Joe Biden, whose approval ratings are stuck in the low 40s. The Cook Political Report considers the race a “tossup.”
