As Democrats prepare for what is expected to be a challenging election cycle in 2024, the party is looking to two of its lawmakers as crucial to maintaining its slim majority in the Senate: Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana.
The 2024 election will give Republicans a chance to flip a handful of crucial seats as some Democrats will be fighting for reelection in reliably red states. Thirty-four Senate seats will be up for grabs, including 22 that are now held by the Democrats, 11 that belong to the Republicans, and the Arizona seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who announced in December she is now an independent.
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As a result, all eyes are on the two Democratic senators as they mull their reelection prospects. If both candidates choose to retire rather than run for another term, it may spell trouble for Senate Democrats, who are seeking to maintain control of the upper chamber.
“Both of them are in challenging circumstances,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) told Politico. “I think both can win, but they are the best candidates we have in their states.”
If the two decide to run, it may also determine how the party will allocate its financial resources as Democrats consider which Senate seats to focus their attention on. Both Manchin and Tester are considered to be two of the most vulnerable Democrats heading into 2024, likely making them top targets of the Republican Party.
If Manchin seeks reelection, he will be running in a state that former President Donald Trump won by 38.9 percentage points in 2020. Meanwhile, Tester would be running in a state that Trump won by 16.4 percentage points.
Neither senator has indicated what his plans are, putting Democrats on pause in terms of their 2024 strategy. However, Manchin does not appear to feel pressured to move quickly on the decision.
“I haven’t decided, I swear to God,” Manchin told Politico. “They would love for me to. But they understand I’ve been doing this for a while, and I’m going to make a decision on my own time.”
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Republicans have already set their eyes on the two Senate seats, with the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee launching its first set of ads against Manchin and Tester on Thursday, pressuring the pair either to “retire or get fired.”
“When it mattered most, Joe sold West Virginia out. Joe Manchin’s lost his way. It’s time to bring him home,” the narrator in the ad says.
