Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and former President Donald Trump are poised to make competing appeals to New Hampshire voters on Tuesday as the 2024 race’s top two GOP contenders woo voters ahead of next year’s first-in-the-nation primary election.
But similar to Iowa‘s caucusgoers, the New Hampshire electorate will test DeSantis’s interpersonal skills as Trump, the 2024 GOP front-runner, holds dueling events as he did when the governor launched his campaign last month in the Hawkeye State.
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DeSantis is the only GOP presidential candidate not named Trump polling in the double digits, ahead of nearly a dozen other candidates in a crowded field. But he trails the former president by 22 points in New Hampshire, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Operatives in the state say he will need to find his footing early in the contest if he hopes to challenge the former president.
Presidential candidates need “some degree” of retail politics skill in New Hampshire, where the state’s voters take pride in vetting contenders, according to former New Hampshire Attorney General and Republican National Committee member Thomas Rath.
“So far, DeSantis has shown none,” Rath told the Washington Examiner. “Happens to incumbent governors frequently. They get too used to state police clearing the way.”
DeSantis is perceived by New Hampshire voters “as the nonindicted Trump” rather than having his own identity, according to Rath, adding that the governor’s feud with Disney may hinder him in a state “where every family goes south to Orlando whenever they can.”
“And he has been a bit tone deaf in his appearances,” he said. “He’s the rookie. He has to listen to his New Hampshire folks who know how this works. He has to get to know the ropes and not think he can ignore them.”
The DeSantis campaign disagreed, insisting the governor has been “working tirelessly to ensure his message to restore sanity to this country and lead our ‘Great American Comeback’ reaches every last primary voter in New Hampshire.”
“We have a top-notch organization in the state to help him do that,” press secretary Bryan Griffin said. “We are confident that the governor’s message will resonate with voters in New Hampshire as he continues to visit the Granite State and detail his solutions to Joe Biden’s failures.”
DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down cannot coordinate with the campaign, but it is responsible for much of the governor’s grassroots organizing, which had a late start in comparison to Trump’s launch last November.
“Our canvassers have knocked nearly 84,000 in New Hampshire alone, turning votes to the governor as more Republicans learn his story and record of fighting for American families,” spokeswoman Jess Szymanski said. “By mid-July, we expect to have talked to every one of our primary targets.”
New Hampshire House Majority Leader Jason Osborne, who has endorsed DeSantis, praised the governor for releasing “detailed and specific policy proposals,” with a border security and immigration plan unveiled in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Monday.
“Instead of slogans and empty promises, he is giving us clear, believable, achievable prescriptions,” Osborne said.
Matt Bartlett, a noncommitted New Hampshire political operative, defended DeSantis before his town hall Tuesday in Hollis, asserting that “running for president has a very steep learning curve.”
“You have to be willing to shake hands, look people in the eye, take questions, and it seems with every visit, the governor is getting more and more, not just comfortable but really showing that drive,” he said. “Independent voters are not moderate voters. Independent voters can go any which way they want, depending on the time, depending on the candidate.”
“Sometimes, it is a personal connection, sometimes it is an electability connection, and for most people, that decision is not made,” Bartlett added. “When it gets cold, they will absolutely make a decision when it comes to voting.”
But New Hampshire University political science professor Dante Scala downplayed the idea that DeSantis’s success will ride on his standing in the state, arguing the governor “doesn’t have a New Hampshire problem” but “a national problem.”
“Which is that Trump has a large advantage among GOP voters across the country,” he said. “The question is where DeSantis thinks he can gain a foothold in an early voting state. And given how he appears to be trying to get to Trump’s right on various issues, the answer is more likely to be Iowa than New Hampshire. More conservative electorate, especially socially conservative.”
In New Hampshire, Trump has an average of 43% support to DeSantis’s 21%. In contrast, in Iowa, Trump has an average of 46% support to DeSantis’s 25%.
After launching his campaign in person last month in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, DeSantis has crisscrossed the country, stopping in California, Georgia, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington, D.C., before returning to South Carolina last week and New Hampshire this week.
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Trump is headlining the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women’s Lilac Luncheon and opening his campaign’s state headquarters in Manchester on Tuesday.
Former U.N. Ambassador and presidential candidate Nikki Haley is also hosting a town hall in Hollis on Tuesday, followed by a foreign policy-focused event in Portsmouth and the New Hampshire Republican Party summer cookout with Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) in Manchester on Wednesday.
