The debate between Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) Thursday night may not be a part of the 2024 primary selection process, but it will have implications that could affect both governors’ political ambitions now through the 2028 election.
Both men are hoping to burnish their national recognition for similar but distinct reasons. DeSantis is in a brutal battle against former President Donald Trump and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley to secure the GOP presidential nomination, while Newsom is steadily increasing his national profile as a campaign surrogate for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign and ahead of a possible 2028 run.
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The Thursday night showdown could boost their presidential ambitions but also carries the risk of blowback for both DeSantis and Newsom.
The Florida governor’s shrinking poll numbers have hindered his narrative as the chief candidate who can defeat Biden next year and given leeway for Haley to emerge as another top candidate against Trump. Newsom’s decision to debate DeSantis could rankle Democratic voters who remain loyal to Vice President Kamala Harris, the nation’s first woman of color vice president, and view her as Biden’s successor.
Woodrow Johnston, a Republican consultant based in Las Vegas, voiced skepticism that the debate would help DeSantis in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “Gavin Newsom knows how to speak the Republican language really well,” he said. “I see this as like a mismatch almost. DeSantis is hoping he looks awesome, and it’s a shot in the arm that his campaign needs, but my money’s on Newsom.”
The California governor raised eyebrows when he appeared in the spin room during the second GOP primary debate in late September and went on Sean Hannity’s show afterward, stoking more presidential buzz. Hannity is moderating the 90-minute debate on Fox News in Alpharetta, Georgia, at 9 p.m. and is expected to question the two over the economy, the border, immigration, crime, abortion, and inflation.
DeSantis’s campaign claims the debate will contrast the unpopularity of Newsom’s leadership with DeSantis’s record of signing conservative legislation into law, including a six-week abortion restriction.
“The next debate will be the biggest one yet. As Democrats ramp up their efforts to replace the historically unpopular and failed Joe Biden as their nominee, Ron DeSantis’s showdown with Gavin Newsom is even more timely,” DeSantis campaign manager James Uthmeier said. “A Newsom presidency would accelerate America’s decline, and Nov. 30 will be the first chance to expose to a national audience just how dangerous his radical ideology would be for the country. Ron DeSantis will take this responsibility seriously and looks forward to sharing the stark contrast between his vision to revive our nation and Newsom’s blueprint for failure.”
Newsom did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment.
Tom Hollihan, a University of Southern California professor who studies political campaign communication, claimed the attention DeSantis receives from the debate could help him gain an audience of persuadable GOP voters. “I suspect that given DeSantis’s position in the Republican race, he’s convinced that all publicity is good publicity,” Hollihan said. “But the big thing is, it’s a moment of recognition. It’s free media time. He doesn’t have to pay for this time, and he hopes that the curiosity of it alone will draw an audience.”
“Maybe even an audience of independents who, should he get the Republican nomination, he’ll desperately need in the general election,” Hollihan added.
DeSantis has consistently trailed Trump in national and state polls of GOP primary voters. A RealClearPolitics poll average showed Trump at 61.3% support, DeSantis at 13.8%, and Haley at 9.9%. In Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two GOP nominating contests next year, Haley is now rivaling the governor for second place, threatening his chances to coalesce non-Trump Republicans to support him.
Yet both 77-year-old Trump and 81-year-old Biden face growing concerns from voters about their fitness to serve another term in the White House. A Reuters-Ipsos poll in September showed 77% of voters surveyed thought Biden was too old to be president again, while 56% said Trump was too old.
Newsom may be seeking to position himself as the most likely Democrat to replace Biden in 2028. The governor traveled to Israel in the early days of its battle against Hamas in October and later went on a weeklong visit to China, where he had a surprise meeting with Xi Jinping ahead of Biden’s meeting with the Chinese president at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit held in San Francisco.
Biden even joked during the summit that Newsom “can have the job I’m looking for.”
California Republicans, however, remain unconvinced with Newsom’s constant denial that he is running a shadow presidential campaign against Biden. “Anyone that lives in California is very aware that this governor often says one thing and does another … whether it’s everybody should wear masks, you should be eating outside for Thanksgiving with your family and no more than three family members, while I’ll go to the French Laundry,” said Jessica Millan Patterson, chairwoman of the California Republican Party.
During the coronavirus pandemic, Newsom faced scandal for attending a dinner party at the French Laundry as California battled a coronavirus surge and as Newsom discouraged residents from large Thanksgiving gatherings.
“I’ve been saying for months he is running for president, and that is why he did his red state tour, that is why he did his international tour,” Patterson continued. “They are trying — and by they, I mean the Democrats — are trying to find a graceful way for President Biden to step out of this, and they know that any Republican candidate that gets through the primary will have a great shot at beating President Biden.”
Biden’s approval numbers remain at 37%, and his disapproval rating is at 59%, according to a recent Gallup poll. “The only person that has a lower approval than President Biden is Kamala Harris. So Gavin Newsom is trying to position himself as that person trying to get a leg up on his Democrat competition, and the way he’s doing that is trying to punch up to Gov. DeSantis,” said Patterson.
The debate on Thursday could provide another notch to Newsom’s ability to vanquish 2028 Democratic rivals, said Hollihan, the USC professor.
“He knows he’s going to have to take on Kamala Harris as well as many other highly visible Democrats. And so this is also an opportunity for him to demonstrate that he is ready for the national ticket,” he said. “Should some health event or something happen to Biden, Newsom could also come forward and announce. He wouldn’t have a clear path because there would be other names coming forward as well.”
Johnston, the GOP consultant, said one advantage the California governor has is that Newsom was the Democratic version of DeSantis long before the Florida governor became a national figure. “He was really the Democrat Ron DeSantis before Ron DeSantis. He did the gay marriage thing when he was mayor of San Francisco that made national headlines, and he’s remembered for that,” said Johnston.
In February of 2004, 11 years before the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage was announced, Newsom, then San Francisco mayor, began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex partners in a historic move.
But as the Democratic Party has championed inclusivity in picking its own presidential leaders, Newsom may be working hard to firm up his record if he and Harris, a fellow California Democrat, face off in a primary.
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DeSantis’s attempts to contrast his record against Newsom’s may garner positive results with Republican audiences, but whether it is enough to dethrone Trump remains to be seen.
“These debates are always high-risk, acrobatic stunts because you can do a great job on all the issues and you can shape the agenda and you can really sell a convincing set of ideas, but one mistake is what’s going to dominate post-debate coverage,” Hollihan said. “There is risk entailed for both of these men. I think that in DeSantis’s case, he’s so far behind that the risk calculation … that this is worth it is a long shot. It’s like a Hail Mary.”
