If Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is to succeed in the 2024 GOP nominating contest, Republicans say the governor will need to overcome attacks by former President Donald Trump that portray him as an establishment foil.
DeSantis has carved out a national profile as a swing state governor who secured a landslide victory in the 2022 midterm elections, including in Democratic Miami-Dade County, all while waging a culture war against left-wing orthodoxies. It’s a record some Republicans see as a path to taking back the White House.
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But DeSantis is taking heat over past votes and his embrace by members of the Republican governing class, wealthy donors, and media heavyweights at the institutions of Rupert Murdoch, attacks that could undermine his effort to harness the populist sentiment that helped power Trump to victory in 2016.
“If it’s perceived that the legacy media likes you; if it’s perceived that the party proper likes you, then you’re immediately a RINO, regardless of what you’ve done,” said a GOP strategist who regularly speaks to donors, employing a pejorative wielded against moderate Republicans. “Perception is 100% reality in the political world.”
In a new ad that distills Trump’s latest attacks against DeSantis, a super PAC aligned with the former president accuses the governor of repeatedly voting to cut Social Security and Medicare in Congress and attempting to raise the retirement age to 70, portraying him as an “establishment insider.” MAGA Inc. spent more than $1.3 million on the ad campaign, which is set to air on Fox News, CNN, and Newsmax.
“Think you know Ron DeSantis? Think again,” the ad says. “The more you learn about DeSantis, the more you see he doesn’t share our values.”
The message, which echoes a promise by Trump to protect seniors from former House Speaker Paul Ryan “disciple” DeSantis, attempts to dismantle the governor’s pitch to the voters who helped propel Trump to victory in 2016. DeSantis has already claimed he could beat Biden in a presidential election.
“They’re going way back to make the case that Ron DeSantis is not who he says he is and defining him as a Manchurian Candidate for the establishment,” the GOP campaign strategist said.
DeSantis, who last week drew reproach for a tepid defense of Trump in which he referenced “porn star hush money” after the former president warned of an indictment, struck a sharper tone on Thursday after reports that a New York grand jury had voted to indict Trump.
In a statement, DeSantis accused Manhattan’s “Soros-backed” district attorney of “stretching the law to target a political opponent,” vowing that his state “will not assist in an extradition request.”
The response echoed a Republican operative’s analysis that “[w]hat DeSantis should have done is immediately respond and say, ‘Under no circumstances will the free state of Florida allow this political prosecution to take place.’”
“He could have set himself up to look like the protector of Trump, which would have driven Trump crazy,” the operative told NBC News.
Trump ally Bryan Lanza said DeSantis was learning that sidestepping the battering of insults was not an option if he hopes to prevail against his onetime backer.
“Donald Trump’s relentless attacks have a toll, even if you ignore them. They make you look weak. They suck up all the oxygen in the space,” Lanza said. “People have been talking about Trump attacking you, and you’re not responding.”
While some Republican operatives dismissed DeSantis’s attempts to finesse his messaging as the natural “growing pains” of a new candidate finding his footing, others say that the governor’s inability to stiff-arm Trump bode poorly for his prospects.
“Trump, he has a huge advantage because there are no rules to how he fights, and we can all predict how Ron DeSantis is going to fight,” Lanza continued. “Trump is writing the rules as we go.”
In a contentious Republican nominating contest, DeSantis’s playbook may be his undoing, Lanza said.
“Ron is playing the 2016, 2012 political campaign, which will result in a loss just like it did for 16 other Republican candidates,” he added.
Still, one strategist warned that Trump’s attacks on DeSantis may alienate some voters, citing the muted response from the crowd as the former president swiped at the popular sitting governor during a recent rally in Waco, Texas.
Erin Perrine, communications director at Never Back Down, a political action committee laying the groundwork for a 2024 DeSantis campaign, said the governor’s ability to narrow the field before announcing was a powerful general election pitch.
“Gov. DeSantis isn’t even in the presidential race and has already made this a two-man race,” Perrine told the Washington Examiner in a statement this week. “It’s clear DeSantis is the only person ready to take Biden to task on his record of chaos and failure.”
Other Republican operatives say DeSantis is plagued by this early success, with Trump moving full-bore to eviscerate the argument that DeSantis offers Republicans their best shot in 2024.
“Unless you’re the former president of the United States — and Donald Trump does not fit my analysis — you don’t want to be No. 1 this early. Nobody this early makes it to the finish line,” said the strategist. “What they’re doing to Ron DeSantis, in my opinion, is actually killing him off.”
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Trump’s lead has grown to 30 percentage points over DeSantis, 54% to 24%, according to a Fox News poll. The former president was up by 15 points last month, 43% to 28%.
The shift comes as Trump faces growing legal peril. Trump was indicted by a grand jury in Manhattan, New York, in a hush money case, marking the first time a former president has been hit with criminal charges. Trump has denied wrongdoing in the case and contests the claim he had an affair with porn star Stormy Daniels.
DeSantis appeared on Thursday to be moving closer to an announcement as Florida lawmakers introduced the draft legislation needed to change Florida’s resign-to-run law, a necessity if the governor intends to mount a presidential bid before his term as governor expires.
