Former President Donald Trump‘s federal indictment is not hurting his standing with Republican voters, though political operatives believe it could hamper his chances in the 2024 general election.
Trump, who is scheduled to appear in federal court in Miami on Tuesday, was indicted last week on 37 counts relating to his mishandling of classified documents and attempts to obstruct a federal investigation into the matter. Federal law does not prevent candidates from campaigning for president from prison, and Trump’s trial likely won’t conclude until after the election in November 2024.
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The former president was also indicted in New York earlier this year for his role in a hush money payment scheme involving porn star Stormy Daniels and could face additional charges in the Justice Department investigation of his actions on and leading up to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
Still, the first polls published following the unsealing of Trump’s federal indictment showed him maintaining or widening his lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and the remainder of the Republican presidential primary field.
In a poll published by CBS and YouGov on Sunday, 61% of likely Republican voters said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today. The same number claimed Trump’s indictment “won’t change” their views of the former president, while 14% said they now have a “better” view of him. Just 7% of respondents said the indictments changed their opinions “for the worse,” and 18% indicated they weren’t sure. 76% of respondents view the indictments as politically motivated, and 80% say Trump should still be allowed to be president, even if convicted.
A sampling compiled by ABC and Ipsos also published Sunday showed a larger number of respondents, including Republicans, viewing Trump’s federal indictment as “serious” compared to the New York charges, yet a slightly smaller percentage of all voters, 47%, now think that Trump “should be charged, and should suspend his campaign,” compared to the 50% who answered that way in April. The poll also found that more respondents, 47%, believe the federal indictment is “politically motivated” than those who do not, 38%.
Four veteran Republican operatives explained to the Washington Examiner that Trump could “ride the wave” of his indictment to the GOP nomination but couldn’t say if that support would carry through to the general.
“Putting Trump’s own behavior aside, this indictment looks like [President Joe] Biden is trying to take Trump off the board, and that lets him play the victim and reframe himself yet again as a political outsider,” one operative said. “That should be enough to blunt DeSantis’s charge, but it will likely energize the anti-Trump voters in a similar way for the general.”
“A lot can happen between now and when primary votes are cast, but this played perfectly into Trump’s hands. Now, all the other Republicans have to come to his defense or risk forever losing the 40% of the party that will back him no matter what,” a second operative added.
“Does this hand Trump the nomination? Probably. Does this also hand Biden reelection?” a third operative expanded. “It’s hard to see disaffected Democrats and Independents voting for a guy in the slammer, no matter how unpopular Biden is.”
Despite the breadth and severity of Trump’s legal trouble, Republican lawmakers, led by House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY), have attempted to similarly cast doubts about Biden’s fitness for office by investigating his and other Biden family business dealings in recent years.
The latest round of allegations claims that Biden and his family made millions after he departed the Obama administration, but the president laughed off corruption claims in early June.
“Where’s the money? I’m joking,” Biden told reporters when asked about Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R-SC) claim he is corrupt. “It’s a bunch of malarkey.”
The claims also do not appear to be seriously resonating with the public.
Biden’s approval ratings have been underwater since the August 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan but remained constant since the summer of 2022, hovering around 42% disapproval.
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And though Democratic poll respondents frequently say they prefer Biden not run again in 2024, the vast majority of voters cite Biden’s age, not Republican investigations, for their answers.
“The allegations from House Republicans are extremely disingenuous. Not only do they repeat tired conspiracy theories, but they don’t come close to matching the scope or severity of Trump’s lawbreaking,” one Democratic official told the Washington Examiner. “Donald Trump showed the country exactly who he was on Jan. 6, and his behavior after leaving office, including bold-face lying to his base, will have Republicans running for the exit.”
