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March 29, 2023

Thus far, Donald Trump is essentially re-running his 2016 campaign in his bid to win the presidency in 2024.  He has chosen to emulate his 2016 scorched earth primary campaign and hope for the same outcome despite a far different America and a far different Donald Trump. 

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The electoral landscape is not the same as 2016 and Trump is no longer the brash no-holds-barred insurgent candidate with whom the corporate media was infatuated as they gave him nearly $5 Billion in free coverage, which was mostly favorable, during his primary campaign. 

There are four factors that were not in play in Trump’s successful run in 2016 and that cannot be ignored in 2024.  They are Trump’s highly successful but tumultuous presidency, the absolute necessity of overcoming massive voter fraud and manipulation, shifting demographic voting patterns, and as the 2022 mid-terms revealed, reliance on pocketbook and governing competency issues alone no longer win elections. 

Trump addresses his first campiagn rally in Waco, Texas (YouTube screengrab)

Recently, Trump featured on his Truth Social account a December 2021 article I wrote highlighting the overwhelming success of his presidency.  Despite facing gratuitous criticism from the usual quarters accusing me of being obsequious and hyperbolic; I stand by my assertion that he was the right president at the right time and thus among the pantheon of indispensable presidents. 

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Trump’s near unprecedented success in office came with extraordinary financial and personal cost as well as malicious media and Democrat-induced animosity from a substantial portion of the electorate.  Twenty-six months after leaving office only 39% of Americans have a favorable opinion of him and 61% (which includes 25% of Republicans) do not want him to be president again.  The replaying of his no-holds-barred 2016 tactics in 2024 will only feed into the grossly unfair portrait embedded in far too many peoples minds.

The 2020 election was littered with brazen and unfettered ballot harvesting, mail-in voting, ballot manipulation by lawfare, unconstitutional election law changes by courts, and outright voter fraud by the Democrats in every battleground state.  Unless addressed forcefully in 2024, Trump’s prospect of winning enough electoral votes is problematic.  It cannot be done without an all-out concerted effort to monitor the vote, to ballot harvest and to aggressively promote mail-in and early voting among Republican and Independent voters. 

But this requires a massive army of volunteers and activists which Trump’s staunchly loyal base (perhaps 33% of Republican voters)  cannot provide.  Instead, he will need to recruit from the entire universe of those that identify as conservative, independent or Republican in order to offset Democrat voting machinations.

If Trump continues with the same blitzkrieg campaign style of bludgeoning his opponents as unmercifully as he did in 2016, he will be unable to marshal an enthusiastic and determined army of volunteers and activists so vital to combating voter fraud and manipulation.

These same campaign tactics will also further alienate the younger voters (Millennials and Gen Z) Trump will need to vote for him in the 2024 general election as this massive segment of the citizenry is growing in influence with each passing election.

In 2016 this group accounted for 36% of all registered voters and represented less than 32% of the overall vote and voted 55-38% for Hillary Clinton.  In 2020 they accounted for 44% of all registered voters, represented 43% of the overall vote and voted 54-43% for an addled Joe Biden.  In 2024 it is estimated that they will total nearly 53% of all registered voters.  The Democrats plan in 2024 is to focus on turnout in order to achieve a goal of at least 50% of the overall vote.