Former President Donald Trump holds a major lead over President Joe Biden in several key swing states, according to a new poll.
A poll from Echelon Insights found that 48% of respondents in swing states would probably or definitely vote for Trump, compared to just 41% for Biden. Though Biden is narrowly favored overall by likely voters, with 43% favoring him compared to 42% for Trump, the Republican front-runner could win 270 Electoral College votes by seizing the swing states.
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Furthermore, Biden’s hold on the overall vote isn’t secure either, when taking progressive challenger Cornel West of the Green Party into consideration. The poll found that West can siphon a significant number of Biden’s liberal votes, enough to have Trump hold the majority of the ballot.
When taking West into consideration, Biden’s share of the vote drops to 42%, with West taking 4% of the vote. Trump emerges triumphant with 43% of the vote.
Trump’s lead in swing states is further solidified when West is involved as well; Trump’s share remains at 48%, while Biden’s drops to 40%.
The results appear to show a decisive role for West if he decides to stay in the race.
“There is always a danger a third-party candidate can impact the Electoral College results, particularly if they receive enough votes in a battleground state or states to change the outcome. In a close election, Cornel West could well be a spoiler,” David B. Cohen, political science professor at the University of Akron in Ohio, told Newsweek.
“There is no evidence to suggest that the 2024 election will be anything but a very close election decided by razor-thin margins, which means that a third-party candidate could have an outsized influence in the result,” he added.
Biden’s fortunes would be even worse if artist Taylor Swift decided to run as an independent candidate, with the poll finding that she would win 7% of the vote, mostly poaching votes off Biden. Her entrance into the race would send Biden’s share of the vote in swing states down to 38%. In that case, Trump would take 43% of the overall vote, compared to Biden’s 41%.
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Furthering the good news for Trump in the poll, it also found that the former president would perform better than Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), his primary Republican competitor, in a general election against Biden. In an election between DeSantis and Biden, the incumbent would receive 45% of the vote, compared to DeSantis’s 42%. He is just 1 percentage point ahead in swing states, with 44% compared to Biden’s 43%.
The Echelon Insights poll surveyed 1,020 likely voters June 26-29, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
