Polling guru Nate Silver says Republicans have “the edge” in the contest to win control of the Senate, but “fairly big swings” could save the Democrats in the midterm elections.
Two days before Election Day, Silver shared FiveThirtyEight‘s forecasts for the balance of power in Congress on ABC’s This Week, signaling a strong performance for the GOP, though one that is not guaranteed on all fronts.
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“In the House, you have a pretty clear front-runner, which is the GOP given the history of the opposition party doing well in the midterms, given the polling, the president’s approval rating,” Silver said on Sunday.
He then employed a football metaphor. “It’s not a guarantee, but it’s as though they’re kicking a 42-yard field goal. You would expect that to happen most of the time,” Silver said.
“The Senate is much closer,” he added. “We have the GOP with a 55-45 edge. You can call that a dead heat if you want. You’d rather have 55 than 45. But with six or seven races within a couple points, you could have fairly big swings either way.”
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Republicans need only a net gain of one seat to dominate the upper chamber, which is currently split with a 50-50 tie that is broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. Competitive races include those in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
