Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is leading the two Democratic candidates in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial race, as well as the rest of the GOP primary field.
A survey from Emerson College Polling conducted from Aug. 9-11 shows Ayotte leading Democratic Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, 46%-37%, and Democratic state Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, 47%-34%.
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In the Republican primary, the former senator leads former state Senate President Chuck Morse 45%-9%, with no other candidates receiving more than 5%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release that Gov. Chris Sununu’s (R-NH) popularity is likely helping Ayotte among her Democratic opponents.
“With at least 17% of voters still undecided, there is plenty of room for the New Hampshire Governor’s race to change,” Kimball said in a statement. “The high approval rating of current Governor Chris Sununu could impact a potential race between Ayotte and Craig or Warmington, as voters generally approve of their Republican Governor.”
Sununu announced he would not run for another term in July 2023 after winning four consecutive elections from 2016 to 2022. His most recent electoral victory, last year, was a landslide, 57%-41.5%.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from “solid Republican” to “toss-up” after Sununu announced he would not seek a fifth term, but Sununu’s high approval rating could save the seat for the GOP.
Despite the strong showing by Ayotte in the gubernatorial race poll, former President Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner in the presidential primary, trails President Joe Biden significantly in a head-to-head matchup in the Granite State.
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The survey shows Biden leading Trump 48%-41% in a head-to-head matchup while also showing both Biden and Trump handily leading their party primaries in New Hampshire.
Trump lost New Hampshire in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. He lost to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016 by less than 3,000 votes but lost to Biden by less than 60,000 votes in New Hampshire in 2020.
