While nothing’s certain in politics, Republicans winning a House majority on Tuesday is a safe bet at this point.
How big will House GOP gains likely be in upending the current balance of 220 Democrats, 213 Republicans, and three vacancies? Several factors will contribute, including coattails from statewide races for Senate, governor, and other contests and the approval (and, more to the point, disapproval) rating of President Joe Biden. After all, many voters blame Biden and congressional Democrats for the worst inflation in four decades and persistently high gas prices, among other national problems.
COLLAPSING HOUSE? DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY THREATENED BY REPUBLICAN MIDTERM MOMENTUM
Each House district, of course, has its own quirks. And in the 44 states with two or more House seats, each district will have a new shape. Under state-run redistricting processes after the 2020 census, some seats have been altered dramatically, while others are substantially the same.
So, heading into election night, here are 10 races likely to determine how big a margin House Republicans will have. Republicans don’t have to win them all, or even most, to win a House majority. But doing so could make the difference between a red wave or a considerably smaller ripple.
Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District
Republicans think they have Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran on the political ropes as he seeks reelection in this northeastern Arizona seat. The district in 2020 would have voted for former President Donald Trump over Biden 53.2% to 45.3%. Republicans are bullish on the chances of Republican nominee Eli Crane, a retired Navy SEAL.
California’s 3rd District
This new House district is arguably the most topographically diverse in the nation. It straddles the California state line with Nevada for nearly 450 miles, stretching from snow-capped peaks in the Sierra Nevada Mountains south to Death Valley, which is the lowest in North America, at 282 feet below sea level. Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley faces Dr. Kermit Jones, a Democrat. Trump in 2020 would have prevailed in the new district, but relatively narrowly, 49.7% to 47.9%. In a more evenly matched election year, this would be a toss-up, but under current circumstances, Kiley is favored to win.
California’s 45th District
This district, straddling inland Orange and Los Angeles counties, includes a plurality of Asian American residents. And the race between Republican Rep. Michelle Steel and Democratic rival Jay Chen, a community college trustee, has turned harshly negative, with charges of anti-Asian bias flying back and forth. Over the summer, Steel, who emigrated from South Korea, accused Chen of mocking her accent, which he denied. Her campaign, a few weeks later, sent out a mailer portraying Chen, the son of Taiwanese immigrants, as a communist sympathizer — because a decade ago, on the Hacienda La Puente school board, Chen voted to adopt a free Chinese-language program offered by the Chinese government.
California’s 47th District
This is a late-breaking, newly competitive race in a coastal Orange County district, which is good news for the Republicans. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a doyenne of the congressional hard Left, faces Scott Baugh, a Republican assemblyman from 1995 to 2000 who led the GOP caucus in Sacramento during the latter part of his tenure. The race tests how much Orange County has really changed politically. Once a Republican redoubt, the suburban county south of Los Angeles has turned purple and even blue in parts over the past several years. Baugh is a traditional, Reagan-style Republican with broad name recognition in the district. Porter, meanwhile, became a Democratic star through the merciless grilling of banking CEOs and other business executives during House committee hearings.
Minnesota’s 2nd District
This southern Minneapolis-St. Paul suburban district is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. It has become a new concern for House Democrats, with outside groups pouring in advertising dollars in to triage it. Recent polling has been sparse. But a mid-October survey showed Democratic Rep. Angie Craig leading Republican rival Tyler Kistner by a single point. The campaign of Craig, a former healthcare executive, does have a healthy financial advantage over that of Kistner, a Marine Corps Reserve officer. Biden would have won here by 52.5% to 45.4%.
Nevada’s 1st District
Democratic Rep. Dina Titus was on to something in vulgarly describing the contours of the House district where she’s seeking reelection on Nov. 8. “I totally got f***ed by the legislature on my district,” Titus said at an AFL-CIO town hall on December 2021. “I’m sorry to say it like that, but I don’t know any other way to say it.” The new eastern Las Vegas-area 1st District would have backed Biden over Trump by a much narrower margin than the one she’s represented since 2013, covering most of the city of Las Vegas, portions of North Las Vegas, and parts of unincorporated Clark County. Sure enough, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed Titus tied at 47% with her Republican opponent, Mark Robertson, a financial planner and military veteran who retired as a colonel in the U.S. Army Reserves. That’s hardly a comfortable place for Titus to be in as the Republicans’ election edge seems to build.
Ohio’s 1st District
If GOP Rep. Steve Chabot can hold on in this Cincinnati-area district, Republicans will not only be in the midst of winning a House majority, but a substantial one at that. Democrats, however, like their chances for this newly redrawn seat, which would have voted for Biden over Trump 53.5% to 45%. The Democratic nominee is Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman.
Pennsylvania’s 7th District
This race between Democratic Rep. Susan Wild and Republican nominee Lisa Scheller, a former Lehigh County commissioner and wealthy businesswoman, is a microcosm of the nation’s evenly divided electorate. In 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump by a hair in this Lehigh Valley District, 49.7% to 49.1%. That’s probably good news for Republicans, with an anxious electorate that’s likely more prone to take a chance on challengers rather than keeping incumbents in office.
Rhode Island’s 2nd District
The newly created western Providence and western Rhode Island district has become a cause celebre among House Republicans. They’re currently shut out of House seats in New England, and winning a district in heavily Democratic Rhode Island would help pad their prospective majority and give them bragging rights. GOP nominee Allan Fung, a former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, has consistently led in recent polls against the Democratic nominee, state Treasurer Seth Magaziner. No Republican has won a House seat in Rhode Island since 1992, so a Fung victory would likely be part of a red wave — or at least a strong election night.
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Washington’s 8th District
Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier hasn’t committed any major gaffes or been implicated in scandals during her nearly four years in Congress. But she’s just the kind of relatively low-profile lawmaker who can get washed out in an election wave year if one ends up emerging for Republicans. Schrier faces Republican nominee Matt Larkin, an attorney and official in former President George W. Bush’s administration. The district, based in the eastern Seattle suburbs and part of central Washington, in 2020 would have backed Biden over Trump 52% to 45.3% — a Democratic edge to be sure, but hardly enough political sandbagging to thwart a potential GOP wave.
