Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is heading into the second Republican National Committee debate next week with more momentum behind her campaign after a standout performance at the first GOP primary debate last month.
Her first debate performance saw her campaign see a rise in enthusiasm at early state rallies, a sizable increase in donations, and a bump in some national and state polls. All of these facts are giving her supporters cause to believe Haley could become one of the dominant candidates in the primary race, apart from former President Donald Trump, the front-runner.
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Haley’s campaign has long touted that she is the only Republican who can defeat President Joe Biden during next year’s elections. And at least one poll has some evidence of this fact. A CNN poll released earlier this month showed Haley as the only Republican candidate who beat Biden in a hypothetical matchup, 49% to 43%, which puts Haley’s support over the president outside of the margin of error.
“I think the reason that it shows that I would beat Biden by 6 points is simple. I think the majority of Americans know we need a new generational leader, that we need to leave the negativity of the past behind us,” Haley told CNN’s Jake Tapper in response to the poll. Her campaign has also seized on a senior Democratic strategist’s comment to Politico that “we’re in trouble” if Haley were the GOP nominee as another sign that she could make a race against Biden more than competitive.
Another poll from Iowa State University-Civiqs surveying likely Republican Iowa caucus attendees showed Haley at 10%, behind Trump at 51% and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 14%, although DeSantis’s lead over Haley is within the poll’s margin of error of 5.8 percentage points. An NMB Research survey of New Hampshire GOP primary voters showed Haley and DeSantis tied for second place at 10%, while Trump garnered 47% support.
Haley’s supporters say the momentum hasn’t slowed in the weeks since the debate. “I think that she can carry this momentum forward that she got from all of the events that she’s had, not just the grassroots,” said Iowa GOP state Sen. Chris Cournoyer, who endorsed Haley for president in July. “But I think to continue to build on the momentum that she’s had through her work across Iowa and the first debate is just really continue to hone in on those messages that are important to American citizens.”
A sign of Haley tackling the concerns of the American public is that she is set to give a major economic speech on Friday in which she will call for the end of the federal gas tax. The speech comes as inflation rose 1.6% in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and as the nation’s debt hit $33 trillion for the first time. “We’re going to stop the spending, and we’re going to come out with another list of plans on how we’re going to move all of the functions from the federal government down to the states so that we can reduce the size of the federal government and empower the people in the states,” Haley told Newsmax over the weekend. “We’re going to get our budget back on track. That’s why we need an accountant in the White House.”
Beyond polling, a campaign event after the debate in Indian Land, South Carolina, hit its max capacity leading to three overflow rooms, which Haley supporters point to as one example of her growing rise in the primary race. “The energy is palpable,” said former New Hampshire GOP state Rep. and Speaker Pro Tempore Kim Rice. “We go into these town halls, and it’s standing room only. People are really just energized and excited to see her.”
“I think as these debates go on, Nikki is just going to keep gaining more and more momentum,” Rice, who also serves as Haley’s New Hampshire state campaign co-chair, added. “People have underestimated her over and over again. And she has continued to surpass the expectations.”
With the growing enthusiasm Haley has amassed, not unnoticed by other presidential campaigns, Haley could enter the next debate at risk of attacks from her opponents. A memo from her campaign manager Betsy Ankney pointed to polling from Trump and DeSantis showing Haley’s rising stock in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“The Trump team released its polling in Iowa and New Hampshire showing Nikki in third place in both states,” wrote Ankney. “The DeSantis team leaked its polling showing Nikki in a solid third place in Iowa. A poll conducted by an independent group in New Hampshire shows Nikki tied with DeSantis for second. Keep in mind that at this point, DeSantis’s side has spent over $17 million on air, and there has been roughly $5 million spent on Nikki’s behalf.”
The next Federal Election Commission filing deadlines aren’t due until mid-October, when it will be revealed just how much of a financial boost Haley has received, although her campaign touted the more than $1 million raised in under 72 hours after the first debate as an indication that Republican voters are giving more notice. The campaign has seen almost 20,000 new unique online doors in a two-week period after the debate, and 24 hours after the first debate, the campaign garnered more online grassroots donations than in any other single day.
Plus, a slew of Iowa lawmakers and business leaders endorsed Haley after the debate, including GOP state Rep. Shannon Latham, while the campaign announced a list of New Hampshire chairs in all of the Granite State’s 10 counties.
But Haley is not without detractors who are skeptical that she or any other candidate can take on Trump, who has not relinquished his lead among the GOP base. A RealClearPolitics national poll average has Haley in fourth place at 5.7%, far below Trump at 56.6%. As the former president’s legal battles continue, he’s only seen his support and fundraising figures increase.
“Here’s the problem for Haley. This is a one-person race and a whole bunch of people in the second-tier polling at single digits,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist based in Florida. “She can gain headlines, she can show CNN polls that show her beating Biden, but unless something seismic occurs, this race is pretty much over. All that it needs to end is for Trump to win Iowa.”
And it’s not just Haley who’s struggling to take down Trump. DeSantis, Trump’s closest competitor, has sometimes floundered to remain the dominant non-Trump candidate. The past several months have seen the Florida governor fall in poll numbers and donor skepticism about his campaign amid several campaign resets.
“Even when they do it DeSantis vs. Trump, he’s still only getting 22%. Trump is getting 56% to 60% of national polls,” O’Connell continued. “The other part, the key part, is that people aren’t leaving the race because in a traditional situation, you’d expect for people to leave the race to get down to two people, but they’re not leaving the race.”
Yet, Katon Dawson, former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party and a Haley surrogate, told the Washington Examiner that Haley’s second debate performance will further endear her to a national audience. “It’s another opportunity to show the country that Nikki Haley has all the right stuff it takes to win the presidency,” Dawson said, “especially amidst the turmoil that is happening during this election cycle with former President Trump [and] current President Biden. Everyone knows that the independent voters in America are going to name the next president, and Nikki Haley has the best chance to appeal to those voters, along with the conservative movement that is driving the Republican primary at the moment in time.”
Iowa GOP state Rep. Austin Harris, the first Hawkeye lawmaker to support Haley’s 2024 campaign, said that one factor in Haley dethroning Trump for the nomination is to not become a poor imitation of him. “She doesn’t need to run to be the anti-Trump or the Trump alternative. She just needs to be yourself,” he said. “That’s something I think she’s doing differently than the rest of the candidates in the field. You got the Chris Christies of the world who want to be the ‘Never Trumper,’ the ‘anti-Trumper,’ And then you have Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Vivek [Ramaswamy], and Tim Scott, who want to be Trump Lite, and I think that’s shown not to be an appetite.”
“Then you have Nikki Haley who’s standing out in her own, laying all of her cards on the deck, speaking candidly with the voters, treating them like adults, and giving her own resume and her own views on things,” he added. “And so far, once she’s been able to do that to a national audience, it’s shown positive results.”
Both Harris and Cournoyer, the Iowa state senator, told the Washington Examiner anecdotes of an increase in residents who have attended a Haley campaign event. “She had a meet and greet in Grand Mound, Iowa. The population of Grand Mound is 615 people, and 300 people showed up to this town hall,” said Cournoryer. “I mean, it was absolutely phenomenal. I was looking around the room, and there were so many faces that I didn’t even recognize.”
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As voters in the early nominating seek to evaluate Haley’s authenticity, Cournoyer said the Trump-less second debate will give Haley a chance to further appeal to voters. And if Haley is fiercely targeted by her opponents, Cournoyer said Haley won’t be easily ruffled.
“During her time at the United Nations, Ambassador Haley sat across the table from hostile adversaries dealing with tense and challenging issues, so I’m confident she will have no problem handling jabs on a debate stage,” she said.
