PHOENIX — Miguel Gonzalez, 23, recently cast his ballot for former President Donald Trump, the first time he’s ever voted for a Republican.
“The last four years have been tough on me financially, I just can’t afford to vote for more of the same, quite literally,” Gonzalez explained, who voted for President Joe Biden last cycle.
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The college graduate, whose father immigrated to the United States from Mexico, said he’s been struggling with job stability and inflation. He moved in with his parents this year to save money.
“I know Trump talks tough and it all used to bother me,” he explained. “But, I look around at my community and I can just see we are all struggling in a way that wasn’t happening when Trump was in office.”
The sentiment reflects a persistent problem for Vice President Kamala Harris as she returns to the battleground state of Arizona on Thursday. Already dealing with a historic national gender gap with women far more likely to support her than men, Harris is shedding support from Latino and Hispanic voters who have traditionally been reliably Democratic.
Trump, who will also be in Grand Canyon State Thursday, is leading Harris in Arizona by 2.5 percentage points, per the RealClearPolitics average of polling. One recent poll found Harris ahead of the presidential field among Latino voters by just over 3 percentage points, which is giving Trump optimism he’ll win back the state on Nov. 5.
Trump’s appeal to Latino men is largely an economic one, on lowering inflation, building opportunities, and returning to policies that were better for their wallets. The Republican nominee has bashed open borders, arguing illegal immigrants are stealing their jobs and tax dollars.
Daryl Parker, who runs a NAPA Auto Parts store in Cottonwood, said he’s fed up with the economic situation for the last four years.
“I’m Hispanic, yo hablo español también,” he said, noting he speaks Spanish too.
The 41-year-old second-generation American said he’s been frustrated with the border crisis in the state, pointing out his mother immigrated legally from Mexico.
“She did it the right way, it took her 30 years to get her citizenship,” Parker said, sporting a Trump 2020 T-shirt ahead of a rally in Prescott Valley on Oct. 13.
“I feel like these migrants are just taking away from the people who live here. We’re working every day, we pay our taxes, we get higher prices in groceries, we have to pay higher insurance prices. We just don’t get any breaks,” he added.
Arizona has the largest Latino population of any of the battleground states, with Hispanic voters accounting for roughly a quarter of the electorate, doubling since 2000, according to the Latino Policy and Politics Institute. Latina women have consistently voted for Democrats by wider margins than their male counterparts, and they’ve also turned out to vote at higher rates.
However, Latino men are traditionally more up for grabs and are unpredictable when it comes to turnout. The demographic could prove to be especially influential in a state where Biden won by 10,457 votes, or 0.3 percent of the nearly 3.4 million ballots cast.
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In 2020, around 33% of Latinos voted for Trump in Arizona, up from 30 percent in 2016, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. Polling suggests that Trump is improving on those numbers in 2024.
Harris heads to Arizona with musical backup
Harris will return to the Southwest on Thursday with a specific appeal to Hispanic and Latino voters. The Mexican groups Los Tigres Del Norte and Maná will join Harris at rallies in Phoenix and Las Vegas, respectively in the battleground states. Pop star Jennifer Lopez, who is Puerto Rican, will also speak at the Nevada event.
The Harris campaign said sending the two Mexican musical groups out on the trail with Harris, days before the election could appeal to different generations.
“Maná appeals to a younger generation of Latinos, they were big in the ’90s, and Los Tigres Del Norte has been big since the ’80s,” said a person familiar with the campaign operation in Arizona.
The Harris campaign launched Hombres con Harris earlier this month, a new initiative across battleground states to mobilize supporters to talk directly to Latino men about the stakes of this election. Last week, the campaign announced Harris’s Opportunity Agenda for Latino men, a set of proposals to expand investments in “Latino and other entrepreneurs” and to increase homeownership for Latino families.
The plan pledges to generate two million jobs by providing more opportunities for training programs and by getting rid of “unnecessary college degree requirements” for half a million federal jobs.
The campaign is banking on a complex ground operation with Spanish phone banks operating six days a week and bilingual organizers and volunteers knocking doors in predominantly Spanish-speaking areas. They’ve also been coordinating with Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-AZ) Senate campaign, who would be the first Latino to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate if he beats Republican Kari Lake next week.
“There’s a misperception that Latinos may be more open to Trump than in any years past and that’s why we’ve launched Hombres for Harris,” said Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA), speaking to the Washington Examiner at a Harris rally in Chandler on Oct. 10. “We’re out with a great message, I believe, more job opportunities under Kamala Harris.”
Padilla said the campaign is working to sway Latino voters, specifically Latino men, in range of settings.
“We’re up on television, we’re on the radio, we’re on social media – but if it’s a barber shop, a sports bar, or even a big family reunion, the campaign is going to be there to talk to Latino voters,” he said.
Alejandro Corona, 36, is an unaffiliated voter who was born in Mexico and is now a naturalized citizen living in Phoenix. He said he cast an early ballot for Harris this week, emphasizing she’s “the only option.”
“I am an immigrant, anything that is said against immigrants is directed toward me. [Trump] doesn’t represent me,” Corona said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “Trump does not represent my values, my education, my morals and I couldn’t possibly vote for him.”
Corona, who has a dual degree from the University of Arizona in journalism and Spanish literature and education, had his share of economic woes as he pursued low-paying jobs in journalism and teaching at the beginning of his career.
At times, he worked in restaurants as a server to make ends meet and pay off his student loans. After years of hard work, he eventually landed a well-paying position as a recruitment specialist at a global engineering firm.
He said he doesn’t understand the economic argument that some Hispanic voters are making to justify voting for Trump, arguing that this election is about so much more.
“I think they don’t see the big picture. They’re selfish. Why? Because they only think about their own wellbeing, their own personal status at the time and they aren’t thinking about our community, our culture, and the damages that can continue in the future with Trump as president again,” he said.
At that same rally for Harris earlier this month on an Indian reservation, Latino voters who support Harris openly questioned why men appear to be drifting toward the Republican ticket this cycle.
“I have no idea why Trump seems to be doing better with Latino men,” said Jose Melendez, a 20-year-old University of Arizona student who is voting for the first time.
“When Trump first started coming on the scene I was in eighth grade, but I feel like even then I had the ability to differentiate between facts and whatever he was saying,” Melendez added.
Frank Grijalva, 65, who is the chairman of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers in Tucson said he worries about Trump’s growing strength with Latinos.
“The more he lies, the more he says it, the more people think it’s true and unfortunately my community is vulnerable to that,” Grijalva said, who cast an early ballot for Harris.
Trump teams up with Tucker Carlson in appeal to men
Trump also heads to the Southwest on Thursday with former Fox News anchor and conservative commentator Tucker Carlson.
Carlson will host a Glendale event at the Desert Diamond Arena featuring a live interview with Trump. Profits from the ticket sales will be donated to those affected by Hurricanes Milton and Helene.
The Trump campaign in Arizona said it is working to engage Latino voters at events and rallies, door-to-door canvassing, phone banking, and participating in festivals and parades. The campaign has weekly Spanish phone banking and meetings with Hispanic business and faith leaders.
Jamie Florez, the Trump campaign’s Hispanic communications director, said the main concerns of voters are similar regardless of race, gender, and ethnicity.
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Voters of all backgrounds have been “constantly affected by a terrible economy, an unprecedented border crisis, and surging crime rates all over the country,” Florez said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner.
“President Trump has proven solutions for all of these problems and his message is resonating with all communities, particularly among Hispanics. During his presidency, their income was higher, their unemployment rates were the lowest, and more Latino families than ever were able to purchase a home.
“Our campaign message is clear: We can go back to the prosperous years we lived under Trump; when inflation was under the FED target, we lived safely in our neighborhoods, and the world was at peace,” Florez added.
This summer, the Trump campaign switched the name of his Hispanic outreach from “Latinos for Trump” to “Latinos Americans for Trump” to emphasize that Latinos are American.
Mike Madrid, a longtime Republican operative who is the co-founder of the Lincoln Project and the author of The Latino Century, said the growth within the Latino voter base is happening with the third generation and beyond, emphasizing the Trump campaign’s communication with this group of voters has been particularly effective.
“So, where Democrats are drawing distinctions and saying ‘you’re separate, you’re unique, you’re different, you’re Spanish-speaking, you’re a small part of this diaspora’, the Republicans are saying the exact opposite,” he said. “They’re saying ‘you’re Americans, you identify as Americans, you’re going to be compelled by this message that explicitly states you’re American,’ that message alone, I think, goes a long way.”
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At Trump’s last rally two weeks ago in northern Arizona, Parker, the Hispanic supporter, said the campaign’s strategy is working.
“He’s not necessarily trying to appeal directly to Latinos, he’s appealing to everybody,” Parker said, standing with his son ahead of the event. “If you look around at this crowd, it tells you everything. It tells you everything you need to know.”
