Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is crushing Republican challenger Don Bolduc in a fresh poll of the New Hampshire Senate race conducted during the two days following the retired Army general’s narrow win in the Republican primary.
Hassan led Bolduc 51% to 40%, with 10% undecided or planning to vote for another candidate, according to an Emerson College poll that surveyed 800 “somewhat and very likely voters” Wednesday and Thursday. The poll reveals what top Republicans in Washington and Concord feared most — that Bolduc could have a hard time toppling Hassan despite signs of political vulnerability.
“Independent voters break for Hassan by a 12-point margin,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “Both men and women support Hassan over Bolduc; however, women support the senator by a 16-point margin and men by six.”
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Perhaps this is why Bolduc reversed his position on the 2020 election. During the primary campaign, he supported former President Donald Trump’s stolen election claims. But Thursday, Bolduc told Fox News that after “doing a lot of research,” he’s determined Trump is wrong and that President Joe Biden was legitimately elected.
Bolduc defeated New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse, 37.1% to 35.8%, in Tuesday’s primary. Now, Bolduc, an underfunded political outsider with a history of making off-putting, controversial statements, has less than eight weeks to make himself palatable to midterm election voters in New Hampshire, a swing state. Republicans last won a Senate race in the Granite State in 2010.
That Hassan has higher favorable ratings than Bolduc illustrates the political hurdles he faces. The incumbent’s favorable numbers have generally been low in polling conducted throughout the 2022 election cycle. But versus Bolduc, Hassan is in positive territory, with 51% expressing positive views of the senator versus 44% who view her unfavorably. By comparison, Bolduc’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 41%/39%.
However, voter attitudes on the economy could be a red flag for Hassan. On the other hand, voter intensity on abortion could be problematic for Bolduc.
“Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue, 62% support Bolduc and 27% support Hassan. Voters who say abortion access is the most important issue break for Hassan over Bolduc 93% to 2%,” Kimball said.
New Hampshire’s two congressional districts appear a mixed bag for both parties at the outset of the November campaign. In the 1st District, Rep. Chris Pappas (D) led Republican challenger Karoline Leavitt by a not-insurmountable margin of 47% to 42%. But in the 2nd District, Rep. Annie Kuster (D) was steamrolling GOP challenger Robert Burns 54% to 36%.
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Meanwhile, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) led Democratic challenger Tom Sherman by 15 percentage points, 52% to 37%. In a hypothetical 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump, the 46th president led the 45th president 46% to 43%.
The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 points.
