The potential unprecedented indictment of former President Donald Trump could help the onetime commander in chief’s frequently panned campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination and White House.
But the likelihood Trump will be indicted by a New York state grand duty for paying porn star Stormy Daniels $130,000 before the 2016 election in exchange for her silence about their alleged affair could also change President Joe Biden and Democrats’ strategies ahead of next year’s contests.
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The possibility of Trump being indicted, with Trump alluding to the prospect of his arrest as soon as this week on social media, “definitively can’t hurt Biden,” according to Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin.
“If the other side is in a circular firing squad and shooting themselves in the foot, offer to clean the gun for them,” Hankin told the Washington Examiner. “You don’t need to get involved or even talk about it. Just let them talk about it.”
If they do, Democrats risk exacerbating the perception Trump’s indictment is a “behind-the-scenes power play” by Biden because Trump is his “strongest competitor,” according to Hankin, a contention off which Trump has already fundraised. On average, Biden has a 1 percentage point advantage over Trump (45% to 44%) and less than a point edge over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) (43% to 43%), per RealClearPolitics.
But the one unintended consequence is “the longer Trump is a factor and sticks around, the better it is for Democrats” before next year’s electoral cycle, the analytics and data shop Lincoln Park Strategies’s founder and president said.
“If he gets removed from the discussion of the Republican primary really early and it’s crystal clear that he’s going to be a nonfactor, I don’t know if that can 100% happen, but let’s just say it is, then it’s maybe not ideal for Democrats,” he added. “In the big picture, if the news is the former president, the leading Republican primary contender is indicted and he’s throwing bombs at some of his challengers or potential challengers, I don’t really see the downside for Democrats.”
The hypothetical of Trump being indicted has already split Republican presidential candidates and those considering announcing their own respective bids. DeSantis, for instance, simultaneously criticized Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who would manage Trump’s prosecution, and the former president.
“I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I can’t speak to that,” DeSantis said. “But what I can speak to is that if you have a prosecutor who is ignoring crimes happening every single day in his jurisdiction and he chooses to go back many, many years ago to try to use something about porn star hush money payments, that’s an example of pursuing a political agenda and weaponizing the office.”
The 2024 field, declared and otherwise, once again has to contend with Trump being “a master of making all things about Trump,” as it did in 2016, according to one senior Republican official.
“Republican have no choice but to play Trump’s game because the media will also play his game,” he said. “There are real issues facing Americans, and what Trump did or did not do with a porn star has no impact on struggling families.”
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre appeared to heed Hankin’s advice, repeatedly telling reporters Monday, “We do not comment on ongoing investigations.” She reiterated the response in reaction to questions about security concerns after Trump encouraged his supporters to protest any indictments.
“The president has been very clear, when it comes to Americans who want to, to protest, they should do it peacefully,” she said.
Jean-Pierre similarly declined to comment on whether House Republicans should be demanding Bragg testify before Congress about the grand jury investigation after House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), as well as his Oversight and Administration counterparts, Reps. James Comer (R-KY) and Bryan Steil (R-WI), wrote to the Manhattan prosecutor, describing the grand jury’s inquiry as an “unprecedented abuse of prosecutorial authority.”
“The president is going to continue to focus on what the American people need, their priorities,” she said. “If they, Republicans, want to work with us in a bipartisan way to deliver for the American people, to continue to build on the successes that we have seen in the last two years when it comes to the economic policy, building an economy from the bottom up, middle out, he’s willing to have that conversation.”
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Trump paid off Daniels in 2016 through attorney and fixer Michael Cohen, whom Trump later reimbursed with personal checks during his presidency. Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 and served a prison sentence for crimes related to the payment. Trump could be charged with falsifying business records, a New York felony, as part of the cover-up and for violating campaign finance laws.
Trump is under additional investigations, including into his efforts to overturn the 2020 election result in Georgia, his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, and whether he obstructed an inquiry into his handling of classified documents.
