California is typically seen as a blue bastion, but a number of competitive seats mean that it may very well decide who takes the House majority in 2024.
According to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, six California seats are going to be competitive in 2024. Five of these are currently occupied by Republicans but were carried by President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. The sixth is occupied by a Democrat and was carried by Biden in 2020, but a variety of factors could hand it over to the Republicans.
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The 2024 races expected to be competitive are California’s 13th Congressional District, occupied by John Duarte (R); 22nd, occupied by David Valadao (R); 27th, occupied by Rep. Mike Garcia (R); 41st, occupied by Rep. Ken Kalvert (R); 45th, occupied by Rep. Michelle Steel (R), and 47th, occupied by Rep. Katie Porter (D).
“There are some races that are kind of on the outskirts,” Wasserman told the Washington Examiner, specifically mentioning that of California’s 3rd Congressional District, currently occupied by Rep. Kevin Kiley (R).
Despite California’s reputation as a far-left state, Republicans have actually seen a small resurgence in House elections over the past few years, going from holding just seven of 53 seats in 2018 to 12 of a reworked 52 seats in 2022. Despite Republicans’ generally underwhelming 2022 midterm elections record, they actually outperformed in California, winning five highly contentious races in districts that Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.
The reasoning for the resurgence, according to Wasserman, is the unique nature of local California politics. Because contentious issues such as abortion access are off the table, thanks to the state’s Democratic supermajority, Republicans can focus on issues where their position is more popular among local voters.
The absence of more contentious issues such as abortion “allowed Republicans to make elections more about the cost of living, homelessness, and crime,” Wasserman said. “That played more into Republican strengths.”
Despite this, a number of factors are working against Republicans that have the potential to turn the tide of their momentum.
The five upset wins in 2022, in districts that had previously voted for Biden, are particularly fragile. Wasserman noted a phenomenon where Latinos, a decidedly Democrat-leaning demographic, particularly on the West Coast, have a much higher turnout during presidential elections than in midterm elections. This likely helped hand close victories to Republicans in 2022. He noted the heavily Latino 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts as particularly vulnerable for Republicans in 2024.
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Then there is the problem of changing demographics; the Latino population in the competitive districts continues to increase, likewise increasing the Democratic voter base.
One other potential deciding factor, Wasserman pointed out, is that of former President Donald Trump. The Republicans in competitive districts largely rely on a centrist image, something that could be jeopardized by an association with the former president if he becomes the 2024 presidential nominee for the Republican Party. The California Republicans will have to walk a fine line between disassociating with Trump, but also not so much that they risk alienating their own Republican constituents or drawing the ire of the former president.
