Inflation figures may sink President Joe Biden and dozens of Democratic candidates in the midterm elections despite the president’s talking points about healthy employment figures or social issues such as abortion or gun control.
The White House warned early this week it expected high inflation, but likely not the enormous 9.1% year-over-year figure that was announced Wednesday morning. The grocery store and gas station headaches reflected in that figure will supersede any other concerns for voters this fall, argued Republican strategist Doug Heye.
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“Every day, Americans have sticker shock whenever they spend money on anything,” Heye said. “Every time they go to the grocery store, something is more expensive than it was the last time they were there. And that’s really hitting home.”
Biden has sought to deflect attention away from inflation for nearly a year, arguing it would be transitory, that other aspects of the economy are strong, or that the blame lies with Russian President Vladimir Putin and oil companies. The president has also talked up other issues for the midterm elections, for example saying that “this fall, Roe is on the ballot” and pushing for gun control.
In a statement released Wednesday, Biden continued this pattern, acknowledging that 9.1% inflation is “unacceptably high” but “also out of date” because gas prices went down over the last month, and pointing out that inflation is also high in other countries.
“Inflation is our most pressing economic challenge,” Biden’s statement reads. “It is hitting almost every country in the world. It is little comfort to Americans to know that inflation is also high in Europe, and higher in many countries there than in America. But it is a reminder that all major economies are battling this COVID-related challenge, made worse by Putin’s unconscionable aggression.”
Despite Biden’s statements before and after the numbers were released, economists say people are right to be worried about inflation numbers not seen since the early days of the Reagan administration.
“With their sentiment at the lowest level in years, consumers have a right to be highly distraught,” said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. “They’re facing a combination of high and sustained inflation robbing them of purchasing power.”
Biden says tackling inflation is his top priority, but the trend has only been upward since he took office. Inflation stood at 1.4% the month he was sworn in, reaching 5% by May 2021, 7% by November, 8.5% in April, and now 9.1%.
That means voters will know who to throw out of office this fall, Heye said, if Republicans stick to the topics of inflation, crime, and the southern border, with inflation firmly in front.
“Republicans don’t want to take their eye off the ball going into the midterms,” he said. “If Republicans are talking about anything other than that, it’s taking their eye off the ball.”
Still, some Left-leaning economists continue to argue that inflation is mostly related to lockdown-related supply chain issues and that the Federal Reserve may only make things worse with continued interest rate hikes.
“I’m definitely a dove in [hiking interest rates],” said Gerald Friedman, a University of Massachusetts professor. “We should just roll with the inflation, live with it, and give businesses time to start adjusting their supply chains. Eventually, the Russians will leave Ukraine, and the world will start getting back to normal.”
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Friedman argued that supply chain kinks will work themselves out, eventually, though it may happen far too late for voters looking for solutions to rising prices this fall. But presidents tend to get credit or take blame for the economy, which seems to be taking place as Biden’s approval ratings sink below 30% in some polls.
“Even when the economy is doing badly, 90% of the labor force has jobs,” said Friedman. “Those people may not care that much if a few other people are getting jobs. But they do care when prices at the gas pump are higher.”
