President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is confident about his 2024 prospects and sees the 2022 midterm elections as its blueprint for victory.
Campaign manager Julie Rodriguez sent an internal memo laying out an overview of the team’s 2024 strategy, painting a rosy picture of Biden’s reelection chances despite recent polling showing a tight contest between him and the leading Republican.
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“In 2022, Democrats won elections in spite of a turnout environment that was more Republican than in 2020,” she wrote in the memo. “This shows that, under the Biden administration, we have gained support from Republican and independent swing voters who had not previously voted for Democrats.”
Here are five key strategic points Rodriguez laid out in the memo.
Shore up the ‘blue wall’
Biden’s campaign is planning to play offense and defense in several 2024 battleground states. The plan is to make early investments in states Biden won in 2020, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and New Hampshire.
However, Democrats aren’t content to rest on past victories and are looking to expand Biden’s advantage by targeting new states, including North Carolina and Florida — an increasingly red stronghold that Biden’s two most likely challengers call home.
Rodriguez noted that the campaign has already embarked on a seven-figure ad buy in battleground states.
Her memo did not provide specifics beyond the broad discussion of battleground state investment.
Banding together
Due to Biden’s incumbency status, he already has a slew of strategic political resources and infrastructure at his disposal, according to Rodriguez. This gives the campaign momentum. But it also helps cultivate unity.
“Our Party has never been more united than under President Biden’s and Vice President Harris’s leadership. Our campaign is being smart, strategic, and maximizing the tremendous foundation of existing resources and infrastructure that allowed Democrats to defy expectations in 2022,” she said.
Earlier this month, the campaign rolled out its national advisory board featuring roughly 50 big-name Democrats, such as Govs. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), as well as Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). They will serve as de facto media surrogates and assist with fundraising.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams was initially on the list, but he has since been removed amid his criticism of the Biden administration.
Voter engagement
Biden’s 2024 team is concentrated on connecting with voters who say they are interested in or willing to vote for Biden next year. Rodriguez suggested the “fragmented” media environment and erosion of trust in news outlets could complicate voter outreach efforts.
The goal is to use “innovative strategies to break through and connect with voters where they are.” The campaign is considering ways to juice turnout from voters who cast a ballot in the 2020 elections but skipped the midterm elections. Rodriguez also wants to court traditional backers, “particularly women voters, young voters, Black voters, and Latino voters and AA and NHPI voters.”
Strengthen the Democratic coalition
Traditional members of the Democratic coalition, including “communities of color,” will remain pivotal in 2024. But the campaign is also seeking to build up Biden’s “small, but critical gains” among “rural and white working-class voters in battleground states” and sees room for growth among suburban voters.
Rodriguez pointed to the Wisconsin Supreme Court election last month in which contender Janet Protasiewicz trounced her Republican rival. Many Republican strategists are optimistic the GOP can make more inroads with Latinos, but Rodriguez is confident Biden will keep a majority of the traditional Democratic-leaning bloc.
“Support among Latino voters showed real stability across the country in 2022 — from Arizona and Nevada to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, and Black and AA and NHPI voters were instrumental to critical midterm wins,” she wrote.
Fighting for the people
A core tenet of Biden’s strategy is to maneuver out of the “political echo chamber” and “keep our focus on the American people.” Rodriguez argued that political analysts have consistently underestimated Biden and his ability to connect with everyday people.
“We know that they want more freedom, not less; more rights, not fewer; to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out; to live in an America where everyone is equal and has a fair shot; and to have a President with the wisdom, experience and steady leadership to guide our country forward,” she wrote.
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Rodriguez started her job this week. She served as a senior adviser to Biden in the White House and worked as the deputy campaign manager of Biden’s 2020 election team.
She is the granddaughter of the prominent labor activist Cesar Chavez, a man whom Biden has a bust of in the White House.
