Update(1519ET): While this doesn't yet look like the start of the big attack that the world has been on edge about, rockets have hit Iraq's Ain al-Asad air base, which hosts American and international soldiers, during the evening hours of Monday (local time).
"Two Katyusha rockets were fired at Iraq's Ain al-Asad air base on Monday, which hosts US and other international forces in western Iraq, security sources said," Reuters reports, citing sources who say at least one rocket landed inside the base and that casualties or damage are as unclear at this point.
Oh no, looks like it actually hit the Ain Al-Assad US base… https://t.co/MGgKYXqNOj pic.twitter.com/0W9PqBT2ml
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 5, 2024
Over the weekend Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that a multi-front war is on the horizon, involving Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi paramilitary groups - all supported by Iran.
For this reason (the possibility of a 'five-front' war) as well as deep internal divides inside Israel, US-based geopolitical strategist and professor of international relations at the University of Chicago predicts that Israel has a very tough road ahead, and is in trouble...
Professor John Mearsheimer warns that Israel is in "deep trouble" after Hanniyeh's assassination. With no military solutions to external threats, internal chaos threatening civil war, & crippling dependence on US support, their problems are "unfixable & they're digging deeper." pic.twitter.com/oTKO2isJMe
— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) August 4, 2024
* * *
President Joe Biden will convene his national security team in the situation room on Monday afternoon as the US has warned its top Middle East ally Israel that an Iranian attack is imminent. The defense chiefs of both countries - Gallant and Austin - are also discussing a "series of scenarios and corresponding defensive, offensive capabilities." Biden also plans to speak with Jordan's King Adbullah, the White House has confirmed.
Axios has reported Sunday that the message being conveyed abroad by Secretary of State Antony Blinken is that while Washington doesn't know the exact timing of the the attacks, they could start as early as the next 24-48 hours, which would mean as soon as Monday.
Separately a Wall Street Journal was particularly alarming given it said that Iran has told Arab diplomats that "it didn’t care if the response triggered a war" when they tried to urge deescalation and calm. Foreign ministers from Lebanon and Jordan have been in Iran trying to talk officials down from initiating a major attack.
Tehran in a fresh statement has said its intent is not to escalate, but to 'punish' Israel for the Wednesday killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, and that it won't be dissuaded.
"Iran seeks to establish stability in the region, but this will only come with punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurism of the Zionist regime," according to the words of Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani.
Kanaani further blasted the United States and international community for providing continued support and cover to Israel, saying instead all countries should back pursuing the "punishment of the aggressor."
Also, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) chief Hossein Salami has warned that Israel was "digging its own grave" and that it "will receive punishment in due time." He indicated that this was not just due to the Haniyeh killing, but a string of covert killings and sabotage actions against the Islamic Republic.
Iran on Monday reportedly began clearing out its airspace by issuing NOTAM alerts (Notice to Air Missions alert):
"Iran has issued a NOTAM, a notice alerting an aircraft of dangers en route, for the center, west, and northwest of the country, advising aircraft to change their routes."
Iran has issued NOTAM's over their airspace (see link below).
— Matt Tardio (@angertab) August 5, 2024
Flights over Iran are thinning out. Air traffic over Iraq seems to have increased heavily.
Nothing Follows. https://t.co/4aAqbbDcnO pic.twitter.com/m5A452L6dv
"Israel is the cradle of terrorism and it has been created out of killing and murder," the IRCG's Salami charged. "They think they can kill the nuclear scientists of another country and impede that country’s path toward peaceful nuclear technology. They think that by killing the leader of a resistance group… in another country will give them more time to live."
A wave of major airline cancelations at both Beirut and Tel Aviv airports have meanwhile left foreigners and others seeking to exit these countries on the brink of war scrambling and in some cases stranded. But things at Ben Gurion still appear somewhat normal in terms of activity. A Sunday assessment of the situation at Ben Gurion is as follows:
For the time being, Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport is working as normal, and Israel’s airspace remains open. The Civil Aviation Authority of Israel said in a statement "The security situation allows flights to and from Israel. Some of the foreign airlines have suspended or reduced their flights to Israel, for their own internal reasons. Travelers should take into account that their return to Israel may be delayed, and should keep in touch with the airlines and update themselves about their flights."
Unverified reports say that Beirut's international airport is currently more chaotic and crowded (also as it is smaller than Tel Aviv's) after a spate of foreign and Western embassies issued alerts telling their citizens to immediately get out while there are still tickets available.
A G7 statement is pleading for peace...
On August 5 (local time August 4), #G7 Foreign Ministers' Statement on the situation in the Middle East was issued.#G7Statement #MiddleEasthttps://t.co/vhcbfp20AD pic.twitter.com/OzrxZLnFs5
— MOFA of Japan (@MofaJapan_en) August 5, 2024
As for the potential big Iran attack, this time it is expected that Hezbollah in southern Lebanon will play a bigger role this time (compared to the April 13th ballistic missile and drone strikes), with Axios writing that "Blinken stressed that the US believes Iran and Hezbollah will both retaliate."
Update(1519ET): While this doesn’t yet look like the start of the big attack that the world has been on edge about, rockets have hit Iraq’s Ain al-Asad air base, which hosts American and international soldiers, during the evening hours of Monday (local time).
“Two Katyusha rockets were fired at Iraq’s Ain al-Asad air base on Monday, which hosts US and other international forces in western Iraq, security sources said,” Reuters reports, citing sources who say at least one rocket landed inside the base and that casualties or damage are as unclear at this point.
Oh no, looks like it actually hit the Ain Al-Assad US base… https://t.co/MGgKYXqNOj pic.twitter.com/0W9PqBT2ml
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 5, 2024
Over the weekend Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that a multi-front war is on the horizon, involving Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi paramilitary groups – all supported by Iran.
For this reason (the possibility of a ‘five-front’ war) as well as deep internal divides inside Israel, US-based geopolitical strategist and professor of international relations at the University of Chicago predicts that Israel has a very tough road ahead, and is in trouble…
Professor John Mearsheimer warns that Israel is in “deep trouble” after Hanniyeh’s assassination. With no military solutions to external threats, internal chaos threatening civil war, & crippling dependence on US support, their problems are “unfixable & they’re digging deeper.” pic.twitter.com/oTKO2isJMe
— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) August 4, 2024
* * *
President Joe Biden will convene his national security team in the situation room on Monday afternoon as the US has warned its top Middle East ally Israel that an Iranian attack is imminent. The defense chiefs of both countries – Gallant and Austin – are also discussing a “series of scenarios and corresponding defensive, offensive capabilities.” Biden also plans to speak with Jordan’s King Adbullah, the White House has confirmed.
Axios has reported Sunday that the message being conveyed abroad by Secretary of State Antony Blinken is that while Washington doesn’t know the exact timing of the the attacks, they could start as early as the next 24-48 hours, which would mean as soon as Monday.
Separately a Wall Street Journal was particularly alarming given it said that Iran has told Arab diplomats that “it didn’t care if the response triggered a war” when they tried to urge deescalation and calm. Foreign ministers from Lebanon and Jordan have been in Iran trying to talk officials down from initiating a major attack.
Tehran in a fresh statement has said its intent is not to escalate, but to ‘punish’ Israel for the Wednesday killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, and that it won’t be dissuaded.
“Iran seeks to establish stability in the region, but this will only come with punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurism of the Zionist regime,” according to the words of Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani.
Kanaani further blasted the United States and international community for providing continued support and cover to Israel, saying instead all countries should back pursuing the “punishment of the aggressor.”
Also, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) chief Hossein Salami has warned that Israel was “digging its own grave” and that it “will receive punishment in due time.” He indicated that this was not just due to the Haniyeh killing, but a string of covert killings and sabotage actions against the Islamic Republic.
Iran on Monday reportedly began clearing out its airspace by issuing NOTAM alerts (Notice to Air Missions alert):
“Iran has issued a NOTAM, a notice alerting an aircraft of dangers en route, for the center, west, and northwest of the country, advising aircraft to change their routes.”
Iran has issued NOTAM’s over their airspace (see link below).
Flights over Iran are thinning out. Air traffic over Iraq seems to have increased heavily.
Nothing Follows. https://t.co/4aAqbbDcnO pic.twitter.com/m5A452L6dv
— Matt Tardio (@angertab) August 5, 2024
“Israel is the cradle of terrorism and it has been created out of killing and murder,” the IRCG’s Salami charged. “They think they can kill the nuclear scientists of another country and impede that country’s path toward peaceful nuclear technology. They think that by killing the leader of a resistance group… in another country will give them more time to live.”
A wave of major airline cancelations at both Beirut and Tel Aviv airports have meanwhile left foreigners and others seeking to exit these countries on the brink of war scrambling and in some cases stranded. But things at Ben Gurion still appear somewhat normal in terms of activity. A Sunday assessment of the situation at Ben Gurion is as follows:
For the time being, Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport is working as normal, and Israel’s airspace remains open. The Civil Aviation Authority of Israel said in a statement “The security situation allows flights to and from Israel. Some of the foreign airlines have suspended or reduced their flights to Israel, for their own internal reasons. Travelers should take into account that their return to Israel may be delayed, and should keep in touch with the airlines and update themselves about their flights.”
Unverified reports say that Beirut’s international airport is currently more chaotic and crowded (also as it is smaller than Tel Aviv’s) after a spate of foreign and Western embassies issued alerts telling their citizens to immediately get out while there are still tickets available.
A G7 statement is pleading for peace…
On August 5 (local time August 4), #G7 Foreign Ministers’ Statement on the situation in the Middle East was issued.#G7Statement #MiddleEasthttps://t.co/vhcbfp20AD pic.twitter.com/OzrxZLnFs5
— MOFA of Japan (@MofaJapan_en) August 5, 2024
As for the potential big Iran attack, this time it is expected that Hezbollah in southern Lebanon will play a bigger role this time (compared to the April 13th ballistic missile and drone strikes), with Axios writing that “Blinken stressed that the US believes Iran and Hezbollah will both retaliate.”
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