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August 9, 2022

Joe Manchin has finally agreed to a compromise with Majority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer on the latest Build Back Better compromise bill, known, laughingly, as the Inflation Reduction Act,.  The Act was just passed by the Senate.

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West Virginia is the nation’s fifth-largest energy producer.  The energy is in the form of coal, natural gas, and electricity generated by burning fossil fuels.  According to a 2020 report from USenergyjobs.org, roughly 49,500 West Virginia jobs are directly tied to fossil fuels and power generation.

The number is much higher if you include the indirect jobs tied to energy.  A 2019 report by the Economic Policy Institute claims the number of indirect jobs created by energy activities is roughly 5.6 to 1.  If we accept a more conservative estimate of roughly 5 to 1, the number of indirect jobs could be as high as 250,000.  Add in the almost 50,000 direct energy jobs, and it is possible somewhere around 300,000 Mountain State jobs are tied to energy.  Out of total employment of about 750,000, this is approximately 40.0% of the active workforce.

So, if Manchin does anything to hurt energy jobs, his reelection prospects in 2024 are bleak. 

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After months of refusing to go along with the multi-trillion dollar Build Back Better Unicorns and Fairies Act, it should surprise no one that Manchin caved.  Joe has supported much of the legislation proposed by Democrats since he was first elected to the Senate in 2010.  And he said he was still willing to vote for Schumer’s Reconciliation Bill if certain parts were removed.  So they were, and he did.

This is all part of Manchin’s shtick, something Republicans and right-leaning political commentators should have seen coming.  Manchin’s affable aw-shucks political persona includes a carefully crafted image as a man of reason.  His usual practice is to take a conservative position on some legislative topic and later backtrack on it.  Then, pretending he wants to understand the full impact of the legislation, he agonizes and dithers on the issue, sometimes bowing to the right and then lurching left, so it is difficult to predict where he will land. Finally, if there is no serious blowback from voters or overriding self-interest, Manchin usually sides with the Democrat party.

Conservatives thought Manchin was helping them.  To a certain extent, they were right.  But they have to remember that almost everything Manchin does has to be viewed through a simple prism of a blue politician representing a very red state.  In effect, Joe is attempting to serve two masters, the Senate Democrat Caucus and the people of West Virginia.  If the goals of both of these groups were similar, he might pull it off.  They are not.

Manchin will argue that he did preserve the Senate filibuster.  But that move was to forestall the passage of some of the worst Democrat ideas, which were highly unpopular in West Virginia.  So far, he has resisted amnesty for illegal aliens for the same reason. 

The Inflation Reduction Act compromise is surprising in one way.  Most of the items Manchin wanted — a resumption of oil and gas leasing on federal land and completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline running through West Virginia — could have been had without spending $369 billion on green energy and climate change initiatives.  All he had to do was wait a few months until Republicans reclaimed control of the House and Senate.  But with time running out for Manchin to play the role of Dungeon Master in the 50-50 Senate, he and Schumer came up with a compromise.  Joe gets a few things he wants while Democrats get to raid the treasury for the third time since Biden became President.

Manchin thinks he can brag about all the goodies he has brought to the Mountain State to get himself reelected in 2024.  But there are problems with that strategy.