Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) is not only a critical swing vote as the nomination of Pete Hegseth teeters on the edge over claims of misconduct.
She could also be Hegseth’s replacement should he withdraw as President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for defense secretary. As a combat veteran with 23 years of military service, Ernst is emerging as one of several alternatives who could sail through Senate confirmation without the cloud of controversy that has hung over Hegseth’s nomination.
Hegseth, an Army National Guard veteran and former Fox News host, is in political survival mode as he faces a drip, drip of accusations ranging from sexual misconduct to alcohol abuse. He denies all allegations against him, mounting a media blitz on Wednesday to clear his name, but serious concerns remain among the Senate Republicans who are tasked with vetting him.
Hegseth’s increasingly long odds have the Trump transition team weighing possible replacements, even as Hegseth insists he continues to have the support of Trump. Those include Ernst, but also Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Trump’s onetime primary rival, and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Were Trump to choose Ernst, she would have bipartisan support for her nomination on day one as a member of Armed Services, the committee that will hold Hegseth’s confirmation hearing.
She would also represent a 180 in political optics. Ernst is a survivor of rape and domestic violence who has made combating sexual harassment in the military one of her biggest focuses in Congress.
Republican senators conceded that nominating a colleague such as Ernst would naturally yield a “smoother process” than the turbulence Hegseth is experiencing.
“I think it helps to have somebody that you already know and have a comfort level with,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD), a member of the Armed Services Committee. “But it is not precluding for someone that we don’t [know] because you can’t have every member coming out of the Senate or from the House. You got to have folks on the outside coming in as well.”
DeSantis, a former House member, is thought to be Trump’s favored choice should Hegseth’s nomination be withdrawn, though he faces distrust from allies of the president-elect over his primary challenge in this year’s presidential election. Hunt is another name on the short list, but House Republicans are loathe to take on the vacancy given the slim majority they will be starting with in January.
Democrats, confident that Hegseth’s nomination is headed for failure, found themselves in rare agreement with Republicans on Ernst.
“I generally don’t make those determinations before I’ve even talked with somebody, but I’d start off with a very, very favorable inclination” to confirm Ernst, said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), also a member of Armed Services.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), another committee Democrat, described Ernst as someone with “independent judgment and integrity and high degree of insight … on military and foreign affair issues.”
“I think she’d have significant bipartisan support,” Blumenthal added.
With cameras and reporters in tow, Ernst declined to answer questions or reveal details of her private meeting with Hegseth Wednesday as he made the rounds on Capitol Hill to win over concerned senators.
“It was a very frank and thorough conversation,” said Ernst.
Hegseth also met with incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the next chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND).
The margins will be tight in a 53-47 Republican Senate for all of Trump’s nominees. With Vice President-elect J.D. Vance as a tiebreaker, he’ll be able to afford just three GOP defectors if all Democrats oppose.
Centrist Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME), who told the Washington Examiner they have meetings slated for next week with Hegseth, said the allegations are serious and raise unanswered questions.
“I think it demonstrates the need for a background check, and I’m pleased the Trump administration has now agreed we will have background checks on the nominees,” said Collins, who is up for reelection in 2026. “I have a lot of questions, both in defense policy and elsewhere.”
“I would like to hear from him about many of the allegations that you all have been reporting,” Murkowski said.
Hegseth, for his part, showed no signs that he would be withdrawing from consideration.
“I spoke to [Trump] this morning. He supports me fully,” Hegseth told Capitol Hill reporters. “We’re not going anywhere.”
Hegseth later defended his reputation on Megyn Kelly’s podcast, comparing himself to Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who faced sexual assault claims during his confirmation.
Ernst, prior to revealing her past experience with rape and domestic abuse, advocated during that contentious 2018 confirmation to hear from Kavanaugh’s accuser. The woman, Christine Blasey Ford, went on to testify publicly before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Among the questions Ernst declined to answer was whether she wants to hear in a similar fashion from those who have made allegations against Hegseth, none of whom have been publicly identified.
“Kavanaugh stood up and he fought, and he won. And hopefully, Republicans have learned that lesson,” Hegseth told Kelly. “What you’re seeing right now with me is the art of the smear.”
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Sen. Mike Bruan (R-IN), who will retire from the chamber to become Indiana governor in January, questioned whether Hegseth could effectively combat sexual assault within the military’s ranks with similar allegations hanging over him.
“That may be difficult trying to get through something like that when that’s the main thing that’s coming at you,” he said.
Braun offered accolades for Ernst as a “reformer” who would “do well at whatever she chooses to do.” But he did not think that Hegseth should at this point bow out of the confirmation process.
