As the midterm election cycle enters its final two weeks, the political battlefield has changed drastically over the last several months as parties have shifted their strategies in an attempt to gain control of both chambers of Congress for the next two years.
With just 14 days left on the clock, updated polling indicates the Republicans are poised to take control of the House by healthy margins and Democrats have a chance to defend their majority in the Senate, albeit slightly.
MIDTERMS 2022 LIVE: UPDATES FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AHEAD OF CRUCIAL ELECTION
Here’s what we’re watching as we approach Election Day:
House predicted to go red
Republicans have an 81% chance of winning control of the House, according to election forecaster FiveThirtyEight, bolstering the GOP to gain control of at least one of the two chambers in November.
The fate of the House has long been expected to fall into GOP hands, with the party never falling within 30 percentage points of Democrats over the last six months. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, ending nationwide access to abortion, Democrats hoped they could use the issue to bolster their chances to seize control of the House in November.
However, they failed to make much headway, and the party sits at only a 19% chance of winning the House in November, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Key races in the battle for the House
The future of the House could come down to just a handful of races, including several key elections in Iowa and North Carolina.
Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District has been deemed a toss-up as Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) seeks to defend her seat against Zach Nunn — giving Republicans a prime pick-up opportunity. Republicans are also eyeing North Carolina’s newly redrawn 13th District between Democrat Wiley Nickel and Republican Bo Hines, which has been seen as one of the most competitive House races in America.
The fate of the House could also come down to a handful of House races along the Texas-Mexico border, such as the race between Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) in a district that has shifted politically in recent years.
Senate remains a toss-up but leans toward Democrats
The Senate, however, is another story. The battle for the upper chamber has been deemed a toss-up by several election forecasters, with its fate being shifted regularly as Election Day nears.
As of Oct. 24, Democrats have a 55% chance of maintaining control of the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight. Additionally, the party has an 80% chance of holding anywhere between 47 and 53 seats, which includes independent Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
The battle for Congress has changed drastically over the last several months, as Republicans entered the midterm election cycle poised to win both chambers by large margins. Polling from FiveThirtyEight in June showed Republicans with a 60% chance of winning the Senate, falling to just 20% by late October.
Key races in the battle for the Senate
There are a total of 35 Senate seats on the ballot this year, 14 Democrats and 21 Republicans. The GOP only needs to win 26 races in order to win the majority.
It is expected to come down to just three states to determine which party gains control of the Senate. Those states are Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz are set to face off, Nevada with Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Republican Adam Laxalt, and Georgia between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Republican Herschel Walker. Whichever party wins two of the three states is likely to secure the majority.
Voters more likely to lean Republican
Nearly half of voters say they’re likely to vote for Republicans to represent them in Congress, giving the party a slight but firm advantage ahead of the midterm elections.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
About 49% of likely voters say they plan to vote for a Republican compared to just 45% who said the same about Democrats, according to a recent New York Times–Siena College poll. The latest numbers show a significant improvement for the GOP, who trailed Democrats by 1 point in a similar poll conducted in September.
The increase in Republican support is partly due to economic concerns and rising inflation topping voter concerns, with 44% of voters saying those were the most important issues facing the country, according to the poll. Of those who are most concerned with the economy, a majority of voters favor Republicans (64%) over Democrats (30%) to handle the issue.
