Republicans are beginning their fight to prevent Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) from serving another term in Congress, launching an over $1 million campaign as GOP members begin to line up to take his place.
Manchin, who is up for reelection in 2024, is the only vulnerable Senate Democrat who has not announced whether he is running again. He said he plans to make his decision before January 2024. If Manchin decides not to run, it will likely secure a Senate seat for the GOP.
MANCHIN REMAINS SOLE VULNERABLE SENATE DEMOCRAT NOT TO ANNOUNCE 2024 PLANS
Republicans are betting on Manchin’s deals with President Joe Biden, whom many centrists such as Manchin and Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) are trying to move away from as they prepare for reelection in their states, to sink his chances of reelection.
One Nation, a Republican group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), began its million-dollar campaign that focuses on Manchin’s vote affirming the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act that was signed last year. While Manchin is known for abandoning party lines and often filibustering the Democrats on more left-leaning policies, Republicans are not going to let the West Virginia senator forget his support of the multibillion-dollar bill that GOP lawmakers continuously threaten to repeal.
At the same time as the One Nation campaign launch, sources say Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) is looking to launch his Senate campaign by the end of April. If Justice enters the race, he will face Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV), who announced his campaign in November 2022, shortly after Republicans’ weaker-than-expected midterm elections performance. Like many Republicans, he believes Manchin is too “liberal” for West Virginians.
However, Justice is likely to be Manchin’s toughest and top opponent. A January Morning Consult poll determined that Justice is the fifth most popular governor in the United States, with a 64% approval rating, indicating that Republicans, some Democrats, and some independents are in favor of his work as governor. How that would transfer onto a national stage is yet to be seen, but the poll showed that Justice’s approval rating is 24% higher than Manchin’s.
Despite a heavy GOP presence in the state, Manchin has defeated his opponents in a state that Biden lost by nearly 40 points. He also would enter the 2024 cycle with $10 million in campaign funds and the support of national Democrats.
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“West Virginians know Joe Manchin’s work has decreased the deficit and made prescription drugs more affordable. One Nation should save their cash for a bloody primary that will pit Club for Growth’s carpetbagger against Mitch McConnell’s ethically challenged pick,” Sarah Guggenheimer, spokeswoman for Senate Majority PAC, told Politico. The political action committee is aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
At this point, polls indicate Manchin holds an early lead over Mooney. In a hypothetical matchup, Manchin leads Mooney, 55% to 40%. Justice is the only Republican who has a lead over Manchin, according to a Tarrance Group poll conducted Feb. 5-7 and sent to the Senate Leadership Fund.
