Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) hasn’t shaken the rumors he is the leading Democrat in line for the presidency if President Joe Biden‘s party decides to look elsewhere in 2024. Newsom has struck down any speculation that he’ll make a run for the highest office in the land next year, but officials and strategists believe the governor is running a shadow campaign with his sights on 2028.
Despite record low polling numbers, Biden has not indicated he’ll halt his campaign to be the Democratic nominee, and Democratic strategist Brad Bannon agreed Newsom will wait another four years to launch his own presidential bid.
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“I’m sure if Biden announced he was not gonna run for reelection, you’d see all sorts of people throw their hats in the ring,” Bannon told the Washington Examiner, listing off Newsom, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Vice President Kamala Harris, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Recent trips to China and Israel, frequent run-ins with Republican presidential candidates and other prominent GOP members, and hefty donations to key Democratic campaigns are all fueling Newsom’s position as a possible successor to Biden.
Credibility as governor
Newsom already possesses a number of qualities that could ease his path to the Oval Office. Governors seem to have the upper hand in presidential nomination campaigns, with 18 former governors going on to become president.
After serving as the mayor of San Francisco for seven years, Newsom was elected the 40th governor of California in 2018. Newsom has made major changes in the state since taking office that align with the national Democratic Party’s goals, including placing a moratorium on the death penalty, phasing out gas-powered cars by 2035, and boosting Obamacare subsidies.
“I think it’s good to be a governor. If you’re a Democrat and you’re thinking about running in 2028 — I think a governor starts out with an inherent advantage – someone outside of Washington who isn’t tainted by the craziness in Washington D.C.,” Bannon said, citing the possibility of Whitmer or Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) as candidates in 2028.
Slightly more than half of the public, 51%, believes their state’s governor is doing a good job, according to the Pew Research Center, a much higher favorable rating than Congress, which 72% view unfavorably.
Six former or current governors entered the 2024 presidential race, with Vice President Mike Pence suspending his campaign. Four out of five of the GOP contenders that took the debate stage on Wednesday had governorship experience.
“Their advantages: they’re not in Washington. Their disadvantages: they don’t have any foreign policy street cred,” Bannon said about governors, adding it makes sense that Newsom would be making trips to China and Israel to try to foster and maintain U.S. relations.
China
At the end of October, Newsom went on a tour of China to promote engagement on climate change, adding to presidential buzz. The California governor stopped in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, and the provinces of Jiangsu and Guangdong, focusing on climate talks ranging from electric vehicle transitions, offshore wind power, and air pollution.
“The reality is China is integral to the California economy,” Bannon said. “That’s where most Chinese goods come into the United States.”
China was the top import origin of California at $148 billion in 2022. China is California’s second-largest export market, coming after Mexico, according to the state’s Committee on Jobs, Economic Development, and the Economy. The California Chamber of Commerce reported the state’s exports to China totaled $18.15 billion in 2022, which is a 9.12% increase from the year before.
“It’s gonna be a big disadvantage for any governor running for president, the lack of foreign policy and national security credit,” Bannon said. “Newsom is doing everything he can to build that up for when the time comes, whenever that is right.”
Newsom met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and later joined U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns at the Great Wall of China on his most recent trip.
Newsom’s trip was marked by a series of presidential-like moments and actions, showing diplomatic engagement by posing for photos with Xi and shaking the Chinese leader’s hand amid a time of geopolitical tension. Politico reported that Newsom hired Charles Ommanney, a photographer with extensive White House experience, to accompany him overseas.
Ommanney reportedly has a $5,000-a-month contract to photograph the governor in action. Ommanney has captured past presidents, including George W. Bush and Barack Obama. The British photographer, now based in Newsom’s hometown of San Francisco, is paid by the state and has been working with Newsom for the past five months.
Multiple presidents have visited the Great Wall, including Barack Obama, who stopped in Badaling in November 2009, and Bill Clinton, who visited the Mutianyu Great Wall in 1998 with Hillary Clinton.
Israel
Two weeks after Hamas terrorists launched a surprise attack on Israel, raining thousands of rockets down on towns and killing more than 1,400 people, Newsom met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and spoke with Californians who were wounded in the war.
“Los Angeles, or the Port of Oakland, the Los Angeles metro area, has a very large and influential Jewish population,” Bannon said. “So even as governor, he has credible excuses to go to China or Israel.”
Newsom made a surprise visit to Israel days before his planned trip to China, showing support to those affected by the Hamas terrorist attacks.
“I hugged a girl — another Californian, born in Los Angeles — who was shot in the leg by Hamas and left for dead, in truly horrific conditions,” Newsom said following his one-day visit to Israel. “I grieved with families in mourning, I met with young soldiers fresh from bomb shelters and battlefields, and I sat with leaders who bear the responsibility of response to it all.”
In October, Newsom authorized $10 million to increase police presence and $30 million in state grants for increasing security at nonprofit organizations, places that could be targets of hate crimes, including mosques and synagogues.
The Golden State has the largest Arab American population and second-largest Jewish population in the nation, according to the office of the governor.
Newsom did not visit Gaza during his trip, but said he was working with officials and nonprofit organizations to get humanitarian supplies into the strip, which has been under siege for weeks.
On Thursday, the White House said Israel will pause its military operations in parts of northern Gaza for four hours a day as calls for a ceasefire grow louder. The governor was asked about a ceasefire in Hong Kong and told reporters the trip was “limited in scope.”
“I wish I was president of the United States,” Newsom said sarcastically, noting he was joking, per Politico. “I could start doing all those things.”
GOP feuds
In an unusual move for a high-profile Democrat, Newsom appeared on Fox News in July, sitting down for an hourlong interview with conservative host Sean Hannity.
Newsom has called Fox News “literally bulls*** and misinformation” and a “24/7 doom loop” that brings in fear in an interview with Semafor.
“But [Republican] presidential candidates are getting all the airtime, they’re polluting the airwaves with a lot of bulls***. And we have got to have a counteroffensive. So my No. 1 strategy tonight is to communicate that and say to Democrats, ‘Let’s go to war.’ This is serious. Trump can win,” Newsom told the outlet at the second 2024 Republican presidential primary debate in Simi Valley.
Despite his criticism of the conservative media titan, the governor agreed to debate 2024 GOP presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) on Fox in late November, which will be moderated by Hannity.
“I think it would probably be better if he was debating Nikki Haley, maybe he will someday,” Bannon said, adding that DeSantis “seems to be on a downswing.” However, “it’s still a way to bolster his national strategy.”
Fundraising and campaign donations
Earlier this year, Newsom began touring Republican states to boost Democrats by launching a new political action committee, Campaign for Democracy, starting off with $10 million and quickly raising over $2 million in the first two months of its creation.
The controversial move angered lawmakers in Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and other conservative areas after he promised to take on “authoritarian leaders” who are targeting “our freedoms.”
The fund surged in June following Newsom’s effort to put a “28th Amendment” in the U.S. Constitution. Newsom has funneled donations from his PAC into key campaigns across the nation, again adding to speculation that he’s building out more Democrats for a future presidential run.
The Democratic governor also donated to the campaign of Clay Middleton, a candidate in the Charleston mayoral race to replace incumbent Democratic Mayor John Tecklenburg. Other key endorsements included Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Middleton lost the bid and endorsed Tecklenburg in the Nov. 21 runoff.
“There’s no question to me that Newsom is running a shadow campaign,” Bannon said.
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The Democratic strategist said Newsom has more “freedom and flexibility” than other potential 2028 candidates such as Harris and Buttigieg “because they really can’t be as open about talking about running for president while they’re part of the Biden administration.”
Newsom’s team did not provide the Washington Examiner with comments on the topics.
