Fri, Nov 17, 10:53 AM (3 days ago)
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Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley‘s newfound momentum in the GOP primary suggests she may be overtaking Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in the race to compete as the alternative to former President Donald Trump.
Breakout performances at the first three primary debates and stinging rebukes of her competitors have all helped her rise in the field as others have begun to drop out of the race.
Yet as the 2024 election cycle inches closer to next year’s Iowa caucuses, Haley’s path to the nomination remains daunting given the former president’s seemingly unbreakable hold over the GOP base. Despite increasing legal troubles, Trump’s supporters have remained loyal to him, with some giving perfunctory consideration to the rest of the presidential field.
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Trump repeatedly leads his rivals in fundraising and polling, often by more than 40 percentage points. A RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump with 59.4% support, DeSantis at 14%, and Haley at 10.6%. However, in two of the early nominating states, support for Haley has put her firmly in second place nearly nine months after she launched her presidential campaign.
A poll from the Des Moines Register-NBC News-Mediacom Iowa poll last month showed Haley and DeSantis tied at 16%, with Trump once again dominating at 43%. Then, two polls last week firmly placed Haley ahead of DeSantis in a sign that she’s beginning to cement her role as the chief alternative to Trump. An Emerson College poll of New Hampshire voters showed Trump polling at 49% in the GOP primary, Haley at 18%, a 14-point increase since September, and DeSantis at 7%. Then, a CNN-University of New Hampshire poll showed Trump at 42% support among likely GOP voters, Haley at 20%, and DeSantis at 9%.
“It’s clear that the non-Trump vote is beginning to coalesce around Nikki Haley. As Haley’s numbers head north, DeSantis’s numbers are either headed south or have flatlined,” Republican strategist Brian Seitchik told the Washington Examiner. “But the fact is, Nikki Haley has two shots to make this race: Iowa and New Hampshire.”
Seitchik cautioned that if Trump wins the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15 and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23, he will have locked down the GOP nomination. But he conceded that Haley was the one candidate who may be able to block a smooth path for Trump in January.
“No one really knows if there’s enough time yet for Haley to catch Trump at this point. Most folks would probably bet against that happening,” Seitchik said. “But at this time, she’s the only one even in the hunt to have a realistic shot at beating Trump in one of the first two contests.”
Woodrow Johnston, a Republican consultant based in Las Vegas, said Haley had a “narrow path” to the nomination. Johnston pointed to President Joe Biden’s nomination struggles in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2016, in which it appeared he would lose the primary to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) until he won the South Carolina primary and captured the Democratic nomination.
“If she can hang on to South Carolina, there could be that comeback Biden moment,” Johnston said. “It could change the whole map. And then, as I see it, maybe the folks who are in this race technically but still haven’t really gotten any traction even close to Nikki Haley, if they start consolidating behind her, then maybe, maybe, just maybe she might have a shot.”
Trump and his allies are portraying an air of inevitability about the former president securing the GOP nomination. Trump, who has generally taken to attacking both Haley and DeSantis, skipped all three previous GOP primary debates and will skip next month’s fourth debate in Alabama, claiming that his lead in the primary is proof enough that he will win the nomination.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), in his endorsement of Trump this week, alluded to the herculean task Haley, DeSantis, and others are facing. “It’s time for the GOP to unite behind President Trump. Let’s end the political primary charade and focus on retiring Joe Biden,” Marshall said.
Other political experts also offered some caution on Haley’s rise to second-place status. “Haley may be ‘surging,’ but she remains far behind,” said David Greenberg, a professor at Rutgers University. “In recent decades, what has propelled candidates from a distant second- or third-place position in the polls into serious contention has been an optimistic, exciting message — a message that makes voters feel good about the candidate and the future. Haley needs to be more than an alternative to Trump or DeSantis. She needs to get people excited about the prospect of her becoming president.”
Haley’s comments on abortion at the third debate in Miami this month and her comments during the Family Leader’s Thanksgiving family forum may prove to be a new way for the GOP to handle an issue that has become an electoral albatross.
While proclaiming her staunch anti-abortion views, the former South Carolina governor also called for the public to reach a “consensus” on the issue, minimize the number of abortions, and end the “demonization” of women who have gotten one. Haley has previously stated that a federal abortion ban would not make it through a Democratic-led Senate and White House but said she would sign a law limiting abortion, including a six-week abortion ban, if legislation could make it to the president’s desk.
Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, said that as the lone woman on the debate stage, Haley has the credibility to speak to women’s healthcare issues, including on abortion. “I think her position on abortion is right there where the bulk of American people are: 15 weeks to 17 weeks. All the polling that we’ve done shows that,” Chamberlain told the Washington Examiner. August polling from the RMSP showed that 71% of likely Republican primary voters supported a federal abortion ban around 17 weeks.
Haley’s comments may not appease the most adamant anti-abortion conservatives but could pay off with Republican voters who believe the GOP needs new messaging on abortion to win elections. “While most Republican primary voters take a strong anti-abortion position, some recognize that absolutism is not a political winner, especially after the overturning of Roe [v. Wade],” said Greenberg. “It is a risk for Haley to take a more moderate position on abortion, but since she is behind, she has to take risks.”
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Chamberlain, similar to the other GOP strategists, suggested that Haley is still in a good position to prosper in 2028, if not this election cycle. “If she comes in second to Trump, I would think that she is then the front-runner for 2028,” she said. “She’s young enough. If she just keeps going and keeps out there, I think there’d be no issue that she becomes the 2028 nominee.”
Johnston, the Las Vegas GOP strategist, said Haley could even be Trump’s vice president after serving in his Cabinet as a former U.N. ambassador. “Even though I’m sure Trump is annoyed that Nikki Haley is running, he doesn’t appear to be quite as annoyed at her as he is with Ron DeSantis,” he said. “So I also don’t think it’s completely outside the scope that she gets a VP slot. … It’s not impossible.”
