Second-tier 2024 Republican primary hopefuls seem to have a slim opening thanks to former President Donald Trump‘s legal problems.
But although former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) have improved their standing since Trump’s second indictment, they are still polling in single digits compared to the onetime president, who maintains his majority support.
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Since Trump and special counsel Jack Smith confirmed this month that the former president had been indicted in the federal classified documents case on 37 felony counts related to his alleged retention of national defense information, obstruction of justice, and false statements, both Pence and Scott have earned more support despite being a small amount.
Scott, averaging 2% support when Trump shared on June 8 that he had been indicted a second time, is now at 3.5%, according to RealClearPolitics and early polls. Scott has additionally been helped by his ad spending, particularly in Iowa, where he is the candidate with the most spots on TV.
“We always believed the more people got to know Tim, the more they’d be attracted to his message of restoring hope and creating opportunity for all Americans,” Scott communications adviser Matt Gorman told the Washington Examiner. “That’s why the Left fears him the most.”
Pence has similarly had a 2 percentage point polling bump, from an average of 4% to 6%, though Trump’s federal indictment coincided with his campaign announcement.
Yet Pence advisers credit the former vice president’s rise to him “clearly” establishing himself as the “best alternative” to Trump because he embodies the best of Ronald Reagan and the Trump-Pence administration without questions regarding his character or requiring on-the-job training.
“He’s also clearly articulated a number of areas where he’s distanced himself from Trump — First Step Act, entitlements, life, generally respecting the Constitution — that others seem unable or unwilling to do,” one aide said.
Since his second indictment, Trump’s support first jumped from an average of 54% to 56% before dropping to 52%. Simultaneously, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is presenting himself on the campaign trail as a more competent, drama-free Trump while challenging him from the Right, has lost 3 points as well, from 25% to 22%. However, that represents a double-digit advantage over Pence, Scott, and the rest of the field.
“Despite Team Trump spending months and $20 million on false attacks against Ron DeSantis to try to knock him out of the fight, this remains a two-person race, and voters are not buying Team Trump’s lies,” DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo said. “They are terrified of Ron DeSantis and his ability to do the two things Trump couldn’t: beat Joe Biden and lead the ‘Great American Comeback.'”
“If this election is about Biden’s failures and our vision for the future, we are going to win,” DeSantis added during a New Hampshire town hall Tuesday when he was asked about the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. “If it’s about re-litigating things that happened two, three years ago, we’re going to lose.”
Hours later, Trump, who was in New Hampshire on Tuesday too, told the state’s Federation of Republican Women’s Lilac Luncheon, “All of us here today are on a mission to liberate our nation from a corrupt Washington swamp that’s destroying America.”
Afterward, Trump responded to a recording leaked Tuesday of him apparently disclosing classified information about Iran to two authors ghostwriting ex-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows‘s autobiography and one of the former president’s staffers, all of whom did not have security clearances. A partial transcript of the conversation was included in the federal indictment.
“We did absolutely nothing wrong,” he told reporters. “This is just another hoax. This is seven years of this stuff. The one who did it wrong was Biden. He’s got many boxes in Chinatown and D.C.”
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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) accidentally stoked speculation concerning Trump’s electability Tuesday after he told CNBC he did not “know” whether the former president is the “strongest” contender to win next year’s election.
“As usual, the media is attempting to drive a wedge between President Trump and House Republicans as our committees are holding Biden’s Department of Justice accountable for their two-tiered levels of justice,” he said later. “Just look at the numbers this morning — Trump is stronger today than he was in 2016.”
