After Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) announced Monday that he intends to seek a fourth term, Pennsylvania Republicans emphasized the need to nominate a strong candidate to face the longest-serving Democratic senator in the commonwealth’s history.
Casey’s candidacy brings the power of incumbency and unmatched name recognition to a state where the Senate majority could be decided during a presidential election year. The announcement Monday comes before any major Republican candidates have entered the race. Businessman Dave McCormick, who lost a Republican Senate primary to Mehmet Oz last year, is considering another run. So is state Sen. Doug Mastriano, a very conservative denier of the 2020 election results who lost the Pennsylvania governor’s race in November by double digits.
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Many national Republicans and in the state are touting McCormick as a potentially strong Senate candidate to challenge Casey, arguing the former hedge fund CEO, who was defeated in the primary by Oz, would have had a better chance of beating now-Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). Oz ultimately defeated McCormick by just 951 votes in the primary and then lost the election to Fetterman to fill an open seat.
While McCormick has not yet jumped into the race, he is traveling across the state promoting his new book, Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America, a sign some believe he’s about to launch another run for Senate.
“They are being politically coy, and you can understand that happens a lot,” said Charlie Gerow, a longtime GOP political strategist in the state. “McCormick, I think, wants to wait until the best time to announce, but he’s clearly going to the right places, seeing the right people, and saying the right things. And getting ready.”
Republicans acknowledge McCormick could be their best shot at flipping Casey’s seat. The 57-year-old has an impressive resume: Gulf War veteran, West Point graduate, holder of a doctoral degree from Princeton, and veteran of the George W. Bush administration who then went on to run one of the largest hedge funds. But, if McCormick runs, he may have a contested primary against Mastriano, who has expressed interest. Mastriano recently told Politico that he is “praying” on it.
But for the next elections cycle, Senate Republicans have made it clear they are dropping their hands-off approach to primaries following a lackluster 2022 performance that ended with their minority shrinking in the upper chamber.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steven Daines (R-MT) has already criticized Mastriano, saying he proved last cycle he couldn’t win a general election. The shift reflects a widespread sense within the Republican conference that its roster of inexperienced and, in some cases, controversial candidates was at least partially responsible for the party’s failure to take control of the Senate.
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“McCormick is definitely the type of candidate that can make the general election competitive. He may not be the only one. But what we do know for sure is that Doug Mastriano is not one; he’s a statewide loser here,” said Christopher Nicholas, a veteran Republican political consultant in Pennsylvania.
Republicans across the state have tried to discourage Mastriano from entering the race, with some already coalescing around McCormick early in an effort to avoid another messy primary.
“That won’t make any difference; he doesn’t listen to anybody,” said one Pennsylvania Republican who did not want to be named. “It’s not like people in the party are going to talk him into doing something or out of doing something. He’s just going to do whatever he damn well pleases, and we’ll have to live with the results.”
Republicans broadly acknowledge it will not be easy to beat Casey, and some privately admit he can’t be beaten. Casey is perhaps Pennsylvania’s best-known politician and is the son of the state’s former two-term governor, a reason Nicholas said it’s critical for Republicans to nominate a qualified candidate:
“We need someone who can not just win a primary but then have a chance in the general election. We have nearly 500,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans here. So, it’s uphill sledding for statewide candidates in Pennsylvania, I have long said that.”
“The presidential campaign is a wild card next year here. It’ll be a competitive state, It hasn’t been in the last couple of presidential elections, but that will work itself out as well,” Nicholas added.
Casey has run statewide seven times and has won six of those races. The NRSC is already attacking him for voting for laws that they said have worsened inflation and threatened Social Security and Medicare.
“From risking Pennsylvania workers’ pensions in Chinese state-run companies to using his Senate seat to enrich his family, Bob Casey has made a career of shady self-dealing and selling his voters out to the highest bidder,” said Phillip Letsou, an NRSC spokesman, in a statement.
Some GOP strategists said previous opponents challenging Casey have not been able to exploit enough of his weaknesses.
“Whoever the nominee ultimately is needs to be able to cast a spotlight on the fact that Casey is not his father,” said one Republican consultant. “Casey will not cause any controversy, he’s not going to ruffle any feathers publicly, but you have to be able to showcase that he’s been just coasting on his father’s coattails.”
Casey is among a group of five Senate Democrats who hail from states that President Joe Biden won by less than 4 percentage points in 2020. Many Democrats in the state are feeling confident about Casey’s prospects of hanging on to his seat.
“I think a lot of people forget that Sen. Casey tends to do a lot better than the average Democrat in a lot of the rural counties in PA,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic political strategist in Pennsylvania. “He may not win them, but he does better than the average Democrat, and that’s where I think lies his greatest strength. He’s able to overperform in some pretty tough areas, in a lot of the areas that delivered Trump in 2016.”
Mikus believes having Biden on the top of the ticket this cycle will only help Casey.
“I don’t think there’s any concern about Joe Biden losing Pennsylvania in 2024,” he said.
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However, some Republicans in the state see the presidential election as a liability for Casey this cycle.
“Biden is, if anything, weaker than he was in 2020. So, you have an opportunity at the top of the ticket. That could make things more difficult for Sen. Casey,” Nicholas said.
