President Joe Biden could have some problems as he attempts to rebuild his so-called blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin ahead of next year’s election.
But in the Keystone State, he might just have a secret weapon: Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA).
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Former President Donald Trump has a percentage point edge over Biden in Pennsylvania, 47% to 46%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll published this week. The poll also found Trump has a 14-point advantage over Biden among the commonwealth’s all-important independents.
“Pennsylvania is a purple state,” Quinnipiac University poll analyst Tim Malloy told the Washington Examiner. “Red to the more rural west, blue to the more urban east. Our numbers line up with that, showing a virtual tie between Biden and Trump. Historically, it has been a nail-biter. The last two presidential elections were decided by a point.”
Meanwhile, Shapiro, who was elected governor for the first time last year, has a 57% approval rating. Just 23% disapprove of him, and 20% do not have an opinion.
Berwood Yost, director of Franklin & Marshall’s Center for Opinion Research in Pennsylvania, described Shapiro’s campaign as almost “flawless,” boosted by the issue of abortion and a Trump-allied adversary, Doug Mastriano.
“Biden has work to do here,” he said. “People are really concerned about his age and about the economy and personal finances. So they’re not wild about his job performance, but we’ve still got more than a year until Election Day, and many, obviously, many things can change between now and then.”
Yost additionally pointed to Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) and how he could aid Biden in 2024, more broadly downplaying the “basic fundamentals” that “we normally look to” since they were not determinative for the midterm cycle.
“If you look to Biden’s win in 2020, there’s a formula for winning the state,” he said. “And both he and Casey are sort of similar in that way. They can build a similar coalition. And let’s face it, Sen. Casey has a long history of winning in the state. He’s never had an opponent come within 10 [points of him].”
Shapiro appeared alongside Biden this month during a briefing regarding the partial collapse of Interstate 95 after a tanker truck crashed and caught fire.
“We will have I-95 reopened within the next two weeks,” Shapiro said at the time. “This is our championship.”
“I grew up in Claymont, Delaware, not far from the damaged stretch of I-95,” Biden added last week in a statement. “I know how important it is to people’s quality of life, the local economy, and the 150,000 vehicles that travel on it every day. That’s why I’m so proud of the hard-working men and women on site who put their heads down, stayed at it, and got I-95 reopened in record time.”
The Biden campaign remains confident in its strategy amid the early polls, particularly because so many of them have been inaccurate. Aides cite the campaign’s partnership with the Democratic National Committee and state parties to share “tools, technology, and people” and tactics, from leveraging personal networks to spending money on ads and digital outreach.
“As the Biden-Harris team did in 2020 and 2022, we will keep our focus on fighting for the American people and the issues they care about,” campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez wrote last spring in a memo. “We know that they want more freedom, not less; more rights, not fewer; to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out; to live in an America where everyone is equal and has a fair shot; and to have a President with the wisdom, experience and steady leadership to guide our country forward.”
“Polls and pundits have underestimated Joe Biden his entire life, and he’s proved them wrong time and time again,” she added.
The Trump campaign welcomed the Quinnipiac poll this week, crowing about how the former president “continues to dominate in poll after poll, both nationally and statewide.”
“He is the only person who is beating Joe Biden because voters know President Trump’s return to the White House means a strong economy, a secure border, and a safer America,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said.
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Biden won Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes or less than a point after Trump was awarded the commonwealth’s 20 Electoral College votes over 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 44,000 ballots, again by less than a point. Earlier this month, a EPIC-MRA poll found Biden and Trump are also tied in Michigan, 44% apiece, while Republican presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has a 1-point lead over Biden, 45% to 44%. A separate Marquette University Law School poll this week found that Biden has a more comfortable advantage over Trump in Wisconsin, 52% to 43%. He has an edge over DeSantis there as well, 49% to 47%.
The battleground state polling coincides with Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s first Electoral College rankings, which found Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin are “tossups.” Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire lean Democratic, and North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District lean Republican, per the election prognosticator. Democrats have 260 electoral votes to Republicans’ 235, though, with both parties short of the 270 required for the presidency.
