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January 31, 2024

In the 18 years since Israel withdrew its military and civilians from the Gaza Strip, Hamas has fired approximately 30,000 rockets and mortars at Israel: about 12,000 from 2007 until 2019, another 4,360 during eleven days of war in 2021 and, over 12,000 in the current war, which has displaced over 150,000 Israelis. Since Israel’s 2005 Disengagement, Hamas has also attempted to invade aerially, navally, and through tunnels, and executed a range of other assaults, including airborne arson attacks and ecoterrorism, shootings, abductions, and the brutal massacre of about 1,200 people on October 7, 2023, leading to the fourth major Israel-Gaza war in 14 years.

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Thus, by now it should be clear that mainstream policy thinking on Gaza has failed. Ignoring hard facts to nurture illusions about Gazans coexisting peacefully alongside Israelis condemns everyone to perpetual war.

The latest opinion poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) reveals harsh realities that demolish any fantasies about a postwar Gaza living peacefully alongside Israel. Large majorities of respondents in both the West Bank and Gaza expressed a commitment to violence against Israel (over 60%) and support for the October 7th massacre despite the resulting war and devastation (over 70%).

The poll is based on in-person interviews of 1,231 adults (750 in the West Bank and 481 in the Gaza Strip) and was conducted during the pause in the current war (November 22nd to December 2nd).

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Other key findings:

  • The most popular Palestinian figure is arch-terrorist Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader imprisoned by Israel after being convicted of extensive terrorist activities, including attacks that murdered five Israelis.
  • After the end of the war, if the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are run by the Palestinian Authority (PA), 70% would oppose an Arab contingent helping the PA to maintain security.
  • 64% oppose the idea of a two-state solution.
  • When asked which party should rule the Gaza Strip after the war, 60% selected Hamas; 16% selected a PA national unity government without President Abbas; 7% selected the PA with Abbas; 3% selected one or more Arab countries; 3% selected a national unity government under Abbas, and 2% selected the Israeli army.

Hamas’ disastrous governance has been obvious for decades, but shocking new examples regularly emerge. Hamas diverted billions in international aid for military purposes, like building an underground city of terror (including this 50-meter-deep tunnel large enough for use by vehicles). Even more evidence has surfaced, from Gaza hospital director Ahmed Kahlot, that Hamas uses hospitals and ambulances for military purposes.

And yet Gazans still support Hamas in large numbers, prefer Hamas rule over any alternative, and support the 10/7 massacre.

The U.S. seems to think that a reformed PA could run Gaza, but that ignores two inconvenient facts:

  1. the latest poll shows that the PA is deeply unpopular and would likely lose any election or be promptly overthrown, and
  2. the PA has an abysmal track record of corruption and was too weak to prevent a Hamas-led coup in Gaza, less than two years after Israel’s withdrawal. So why would the PA perform any better this next time?

No Arab government wants the thankless burden of governing Gaza. And the latest poll indicates that Gazans themselves don’t want any outside Arab power to manage security.

So who would actually achieve the de-radicalization upon which a Palestinian state in Gaza is predicated? Who could be trusted to ensure that the general population is primed for peace and that the textbooks used to educate children are not full of hatred and incitement, as they have been for decades? Even the UN has been teaching hate to Gaza’s children. So which political entity has the popularity, authority, and morality to educate for coexistence and to ensure that all aid money rebuilds Gaza as Singapore instead of Somalia?