TOP STORY: When Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered an independent investigation into the extent of extremist views in the military in February of 2021, he said that based on his personal experience, he believed “99.9%” of the troops embraced the values of their oaths of service but that while the number of extremists in the ranks is small, they can “have an outsized impact.”
“When I was a lieutenant colonel,” Austin said, referring to his time at the 82nd Airborne Division in the 1990s, “we couldn’t tell that story of what we were doing and how great we were because nobody wanted to hear it. They wanted to hear about the skinheads. And so that had an outsized impact.”
Last month, more than a year and a half after it was completed, with little fanfare the Pentagon made public the results of the investigation into extremism in the ranks over the Christmas holiday, but only after requests by USA Today.
The June 2022 report by the Institute for Defense Analyses pretty much tracked with Austin’s gut feelings, finding “no evidence that the number of violent extremists in the military is disproportionate to the number of violent extremists in the United States as a whole” while noting that “there is some indication that the rate of participation by former service members is slightly higher and may be growing.”
“The participation in violent extremist activities of even a small number of individuals with military connections and military training, however, could present a risk to the military and to the country as a whole,” the report concluded.
THE GREATER RISK: But the report also underscored a key concern of Republicans in the wake of the political divide that followed the 2020 election, namely that conservative members of the military, in particular supporters of former President Donald Trump, would feel targeted for their private political views.
“IDA found reason to believe that the risk to the military from widespread polarization and division in the ranks may be a greater risk than the radicalization of a few service members,” the report said.
Rather than punishing troops who are seen as embracing extremist views, the military should seek to educate them, the report recommended. “In light of the inherent gray areas in any definition of extremism, the IDA team concluded that a punitive approach to all forms of prohibited extremist activities would risk alienating a significant part of the force.”
“IDA recommends that the Department focus its efforts to prevent prohibited extremist conduct in ongoing education and training in core values such as loyalty, respect, duty, honor, and mission, emphasizing from recruitment all the way to separation that these values are inconsistent with prohibited extremist activities,” the report concluded. “The Department should also work to counter false information campaigns and build critical thinking in the force by providing training and instruction on how to be a critical consumer of information.”
GALLAGHER: ‘A SERIOUS INDICTMENT OF AUSTIN’S ENTIRE EFFORT’: The release of the report that was buried for more than a year sparked a sharp condemnation from Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), who called the report’s findings “a serious indictment of Austin’s entire effort.”
“Every data source tells the same story,” Gallagher said in a statement. “Yet the damage has been done. As the report itself acknowledges, anecdotal accounts of military participation of events like January 6 ‘magnify the actions of a few and provide little information on the overall scope of the problem.’”
Gallagher said the report cost taxpayers $900,000 and “created the false impression with the public that the military has an extremism problem, thereby politicizing the Pentagon, undermining trust in the military and exacerbating the recruitment crisis with an already skeptical cohort of young Americans.”
“In order to stop the politicization of DOD, solve the recruiting crisis, and save the All-Volunteer Force, DoD leaders must recommit to excellence in warfighting,” Gallagher said, citing a Marine Corps doctrine that states that “any military activities that do not contribute to the conduct of a present war are justifiable only if they contribute to preparedness for a possible future one.’”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a week of travel to the Middle East to renew efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and prod Israel to refocus its war effort to target Hamas forces more effectively while reducing suffering by civilians caught in the crossfire. Blinken stops include Turkey, Greece, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Egypt.
“Throughout his trip, the Secretary will underscore the importance of protecting civilian lives in Israel and the West Bank and Gaza; securing the release of all remaining hostages; our shared commitment to facilitating the increased, sustained delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and the resumption of essential services; and ensuring that Palestinians are not forcibly displaced from Gaza,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement. “He will also discuss urgent mechanisms to stem violence, calm rhetoric, and reduce regional tensions, including deterring Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and avoiding escalation in Lebanon.”
BLINKEN RETURNS TO MIDDLE EAST AMID ‘REAL, HIGH’ RISK OF REGIONAL CONFLICT
ALSO TODAY: President Joe Biden is scheduled to deliver a campaign speech at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, at 3:15 p.m., in which he will lay out a major theme of his reelection strategy, labeling former President Donald Trump “a threat to democracy.”
The speech was originally scheduled for tomorrow’s third anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters seeking to stop the certification of the 2020 election, but it was moved to today because of the forecast for heavy snow over the Northeast this weekend.
Trump is scheduled to hold two campaign rallies in Iowa tomorrow, weather permitting. In recent rallies, he has turned the anti-democracy label on Biden, calling him the real threat to democracy while accusing him of weaponizing the government against a political opponent.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN THREAT: With just two weeks before the next government shutdown deadline, aid for Ukraine, which is linked to a deal on border security, is hanging in the balance.
A small group of hard-line Republicans in both the House and the Senate are threatening to shut down the government and effectively block Ukraine funding if any compromise on border security doesn’t closely match the provisions of H.R. 2, the border bill passed by the House last year.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), the policy chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, circulated a letter to his GOP colleagues on Tuesday urging them to block critical government funding bills until Democrats agree to pass the border security and asylum policies in the bill.
“This means we must make funding for federal government operations contingent on the President signing H.R. 2, or its functional equivalent, into law and stopping the flow across our border (with demonstrable near-zero results),” Roy wrote.
“Secure the border. Or shut down the government. @POTUS, it’s time to make your choice,” Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) posted on X, formerly Twitter.
The House bill, which would dramatically reduce the ability of immigrants to claim legal amnesty, has been labeled a “non-starter” by Senate Democrats, and the White House has threatened to veto any bill with its provisions.
CONSERVATIVES THREATEN GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IN PUSH FOR STRICTER BORDER ENFORCEMENT
OUT OF MONEY: Meanwhile, the Pentagon has confirmed that while it still has $4.2 billion in what’s called “presidential drawdown authority,” it can’t really use the authority to transfer weapons and ammunition to Ukraine because it lacks the money to replace the munitions and equipment.
“We have no more replenishment funds,” spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing.
“We’re out of money,” Ryder said. “Without having the replenishment funds in order to actually replenish our own funds. It’s the authority to spend them but not necessarily the funds available. Thus, we need the supplemental from Congress.”
IRAQ STRIKE IRKS BAGHDAD: Ryder also defended a U.S. airstrike in Iraq yesterday that killed a militia commander described as the leader of the Iran-backed Harakat al Nujaba terrorist group, who was said to be actively involved in planning and carrying out attacks against U.S. troops.
“U.S. forces took necessary and proportionate action against Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al Jawari, aka Abu Taqwa, who was a Harakat al Nujaba leader. Abu Taqwa was actively involved in planning and carrying out attacks against American personnel,” said Ryder. “It is important to note that the strike was taken in self-defense, that no civilians were harmed, and that no infrastructure or facilities were struck.”
Iraq responded angrily to the attack, alleging the strike violated agreements that limit U.S. authority to carry out airstrikes. “We consider this targeting a dangerous escalation and an assault on Iraq, far from the spirit and text of the authorization and the work for which the international coalition exists in Iraq,” Yahya Rasool Abdullah, an Iraqi military spokesman, said in a statement.
“Iraq is an important and valued partner,” Ryder said when questioned about the Iraqi reaction. “Our forces are there at the invitation of the government of Iraq to help train and advise in support of the Defeat ISIS Mission. And so, as we have been doing all along, we will continue to consult closely with the Iraqi government about the safety and security of U.S. forces.”
US CONFIRMS RESPONSIBILITY FOR BAGHDAD STRIKE TARGETING MILITIA LEADER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Blinken returns to Middle East amid ‘real, high’ risk of regional conflict
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu allies mobilize against displacement of Palestinians from Gaza
Washington Examiner: Biden has a Houthi problem
Washington Examiner: Russian oil and gas exports to China soar as Moscow reacts to sanctions
Washington Examiner: Rep. Tony Gonzales to host House Democrat after GOP visit to border
Washington Examiner: Army removes Confederate Memorial put up in 1914 from Arlington National Cemetery
Washington Examiner: How a Cuban spy operated inside US intelligence and how she was caught
Washington Examiner: ISIS claims responsibility for dual bombings near Soleimani’s grave in Iran
Washington Examiner: Russia fired missiles into Ukraine obtained from North Korea
Washington Examiner: Houthis conduct attack on commercial vessel following international warning
Washington Examiner: US confirms responsibility for Baghdad strike targeting militia leader
Washington Examiner: Opinion: As Biden fears escalation, Houthis and Israel seize their divergent initiatives
Washington Examiner: Conservatives threaten government shutdown in push for stricter border enforcement
Washington Examiner: Congress tries to avoid government shutdown in repeat of past spending fights
Washington Examiner: Mexican authorities rescue large group of immigrants kidnapped near US border
Politico: The War in Gaza May Widen. The Biden Admin Is Getting Ready for It.
Stars and Stripes: U.S. Likely To Go On Offense After Houthi Attacks In Red Sea, Analysts Say
New York Times: Militia Raids In Red Sea Haven’t Shut Oil Spigot
Defense News: Germany Weighs Role In Red Sea Naval Protection Force
Wall Street Journal: Xi Jinping Faces An Economic Test Of Will In 2024
AP: Capitol riot, 3 years later: Hundreds of convictions, yet 1 major mystery is unsolved
Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-1 Bomber Crashes at Ellsworth; Crew Ejects Safely
Breaking Defense: US Leads World in 2023 Launches, Sats on Orbit: Study
Space News: Space Force Seeking a Digital Overhaul of Its Aging Launch Infrastructure
DefenseScoop: Hicks Picks Replicator Capabilities; Pentagon to Brief Key Lawmakers
Defense News: Airborne Range Hawks Enabling More Hypersonic Flight Tests
The War Zone: ‘Iron Bird’ Rig for Quarterhourse Hypersonic Jet Completes Tests
Inside Defense: MDA Cleared to Re-Purpose Hawaii Homeland Defense Radar on Guam, Dodging Four-Year Delay
Military.com: New Arctic Pay for Troops Was Passed by Congress a Year Ago. But the Pentagon Waved It Off.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Airmen’s Pay Is Bass’ Top Issue for Her Final Few Months as Chief
Forbes: Opinion: Tanks Are Crucial To Ukraine’s Future Battlefield Success. The U.S. Needs To Provide Them.
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | JANUARY 5
1 p.m. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Space Force Lt. Gen. DeAnna Burt, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair of the Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
MONDAY | JANUARY 8
2 p.m. — The U.S. Senate returns with a long list of unfinished business, including a deal on increasing security at the U.S.-Mexico border, a $110 billion aid package for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, and avoiding another looming government shutdown.
TUESDAY | JANUARY 9
The House of Representatives returns.
11:30 a.m. — enter for Strategic and International Studies Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies virtual discussion: “The State of DOD AI and Autonomy Policy,” with Michael Horowitz, deputy assistant secretary of defense for force development and emerging capabilities https://www.csis.org/events/state-dod-ai-and-autonomy-policy
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 10
9 p.m. Des Moines, Iowa — Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) take part in a Republican presidential primary debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, hosted by CNN and moderated by anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash https://www.cnn.com
THURSDAY | JANUARY 11
10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project invites webinar: “Spying, Extorting, and Filtering — How The Houthis Control Telecommunications In Yemen,” with Yemen specialist Ari Heistein, author of the CEP report series; Edmund Fitton-Brown, CEP senior adviser; and Hans-Jakob Schindler, CEP senior director https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | JANUARY 12
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group virtual discussion: “Security in the Western Pacific: Building Future Capabilities in the Time of AUKUS,” with retired Marine Col. Mark Cancian, senior adviser, CSIS International Security Program; Charles Edel, CSIS senior adviser and Australia chairman; Becca Wasser, senior fellow, Defense Program and leader of the Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security; and retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director, Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation and senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies https://www.csis.org/events/security-western-pacific
SATURDAY | JANUARY 13
Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election, a three-way race between Vice President William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang or Nationalist Party, and former Taipei City Mayor Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party
TUESDAY | JANUARY 16
11 a.m. — Defense Priorities virtual discussion: “Keeping the U.S. out of war in the Middle East,” with Andrew Bacevich, chairman, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow, Stimson Center; Benjamin Friedman, policy director, Defense Priorities; and Daniel DePetris, fellow, Defense Priorities https://keepingusoutofwarinmiddleeast.splashthat.com
FRIDAY | JANUARY 19
9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress book discussion: “The Arms of the Future, with author Jack Watling, senior research fellow at RUSI in London https://www.addevent.com/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY: “We’re out of money.” Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, at a briefing Thursday, explaining that while the Pentagon could give more weapons from its inventory to Ukraine, it lacks the money to replace them.
