Arizona and Ohio will play a key role in determining which party controls the Senate next year, testing venture capitalist Peter Thiel’s influence in the Republican Party and seeing how far policy-focused acolytes of former President Donald Trump can go.
Ever since Trump captured the 2016 Republican presidential nomination and went on to upset Hillary Clinton, there has been a debate over whether his personality, policies, or celebrity was the defining characteristic that put him over the top. Trump lost to President Joe Biden in 2020 but was still competitive in the Rust Belt and came within 43,000 votes in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia of a second Electoral College majority.
Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance and fellow venture capitalist Blake Masters are the Thiel-connected Republican nominees for Senate in Ohio and Arizona, respectively. They take Trump’s positions on immigration, trade, and foreign policy, all considered deviations from the Republican orthodoxy from Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush. Both men were endorsed by Trump in their primaries.
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But to have a real effect, they need to win their general elections. Vance is leading Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) in the Real Clear Politics polling average, but by just 3 points in a state Trump won by 8 in 2020. A Civiqs poll showed Biden with just a 29% job approval rating in the Buckeye State, with 61% disapproving. Vance remains stuck below 50%.
A new Emerson College poll tells the tale. Vance leads Ryan by 3 points, 45% to 42%. But Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is winning reelection by 16 points in the same survey, and Trump is ahead by 14 in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
The polling in Arizona is sparse, but a Center Street PAC survey shows Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) up 14 over Masters. The split is 54% for the Democratic incumbent, 40% for Masters, and just 7% undecided.
Any path to Republicans retaking the Senate, currently split 50-50 and under Democratic control solely because of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote, runs through these two states. The GOP needs to retain the seat held by retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) and Arizona’s Kelly represents one of the party’s better pickup opportunities.
Republicans are struggling in a number of battleground Senate races in which the nominees aren’t necessarily running as non-Trump Trumpists. Herschel Walker is trailing in Georgia and Mehmet Oz is behind by a bigger margin in Pennsylvania. Both were Trump-endorsed in their primaries, but neither is seen as particularly populist or nationalist.
Still, Ohio and Arizona are important tests for Trump’s redefinition of the Republican Party along populist and working-class lines — as yet another billionaire, the Silicon Valley titan Thiel, also wants.
“Instead of going to Mars, we have invaded the Middle East. We don’t need to see Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails: Her incompetence is in plain sight,” Thiel said at the 2016 Republican National Convention. “She pushed for a war in Libya, and today, it’s a training ground for ISIS. On this most important issue, Donald Trump is right. It’s time to end the era of stupid wars and rebuild our country.”
Thiel also boosted his associates Vance and Masters in their primaries. They hold similar views.
“Our leaders have shipped millions of jobs to China, and the internet, which was supposed to give us an awesome future, is instead being used to shut us up,” Masters, a veteran of Thiel Capital and the Thiel Foundation, said. “The truth is, we can’t take America for granted. And, if we want to keep it, we’ve got to fight for it — because we are up against a media that lies to us; schools that teach our kids to hate our country, and corporations that have gotten so big, they think they’re bigger than America.”
If you close your eyes, you can also hear those lines being delivered by Trump.
Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions was a Trumpist before Trump, championing immigration restrictions and blue-collar workers — and employing Stephen Miller — during his time in the Senate. But when he sought to return to Capitol Hill, Trump endorsed his primary opponent based not on his issue positions but anger over Sessions’s recusal in the Russia investigation. The seat is now held by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), the former college football coach Trump endorsed.
Vance and Masters are running more on the ideas associated with Trump. But they both adopted elements of the former president’s pugilistic personae to win their primaries, with Vance talking tough on Twitter and Masters shoving a man (Masters said the man hit a woman).
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Neither candidate has Trump’s high name identification or ability to use free media to counteract a Democratic fundraising edge. Both were at least as important to Trump’s appeal as immigration or criticizing the Iraq war.
Biden’s low job approval ratings could prove a formidable drag on the Democrats as these races enter the homestretch after Labor Day, and Ohio, in particular, has become a Republican-leaning state. That gives Trump, and Thiel, a chance to leave a bigger mark on the Senate.
