House Republicans are poised to pick up at least three new seats in North Carolina next year after state legislators released two new proposed congressional maps that would redraw boundaries in their favor and threaten the state’s Democratic members.
Each of the map proposals would pose a serious threat to the incumbent Democrats, particularly Reps. Kathy Manning in the 6th District, Wiley Nickel in the 13th District, and Jeff Jackson in the 14th District — with all three races being moved from “tossups” to “likely Republican,” according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Rep. Don Davis in the 1st District is also considered vulnerable as his district has been moved from “leaning Democratic” to “tossup.”
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“I think the maps represent overt political corruption,” Jackson told the Washington Examiner. “I think if more people in the state were following it closely, they would be extremely disappointed.”
Jackson said he’d “be surprised” if the maps are not met with some sort of litigation, maintaining that the current proposals are “not final yet.” It’s not yet clear whether Jackson intends to run for reelection, noting he would make a decision “once we know what the final map looks like.”
The state Senate redistricting committee unveiled its two proposals earlier this week that would alter the boundaries for all 14 of the state’s districts. The legislature is seeking to enact a final map by the end of October, just weeks before candidates must file to run in the 2024 election in early December.
The North Carolina congressional delegation is currently split between seven Democrats and seven Republicans. However, that ratio could change to 10 Republicans and four Democrats or 11 Republicans and three Democrats, depending on the version that is adopted.
Either map, if approved, would give Republicans a major advantage heading into the 2024 cycle, especially as they seek to hold on to their slim majority in the House.
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans — giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.
