Plans to trim the national budget might play well in speeches and plans, but hard votes to pare back spending on Social Security or Medicare could harm Republican chances of winning back the Senate in 2024.
House Republicans are firming up their positions on government spending as they now have a budget proposal from President Joe Biden for them to reference. However, budget hawks haven’t released their own plan yet, and one that is overly aggressive could hinder the GOP’s ability to pick off vulnerable Senate Democrats.
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Members of the House Freedom Caucus laid out their demands to Biden on Friday for what they want to see if he wants an agreement to address the looming debt ceiling crisis. The demands come as part of a deal that members made with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to ensure the creation of a budget that balances within the next decade in return for handing him the speaker’s gavel.
However, none of the caucus’s demands addressed the fiscal behemoths of Social Security and Medicare, massive spending programs that, along with the defense budget, make up most of government spending. Leaving entitlement spending off the table might have been a strategic move as several House lawmakers are preparing to make the leap to the upper chamber next year.
“I am deeply skeptical that Republican leadership is going to bring a significant entitlement cut to the floor knowing that it’s not going to become law and would be used against members seeking reelection,” former GOP campaign strategist Alex Conant told Axios.
Republicans haven’t settled on who they are backing in every race next year, but with especially vulnerable seats in Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana on the table, there is a real opportunity for the party to make up for its stumbles in 2022.
West Virginia
Manchin has made multiple moves that indicate a political future this week, including opposing three of President Joe Biden’s nominees. However, he has not committed to running for president in 2024, nor ruled it out.
(AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)
Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) has announced he is going to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) next cycle. Manchin, a constant thorn in Democrats’ sides, hasn’t said whether he is going to run for reelection, but he is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in a state that former President Donald Trump won with more than 68% of the vote.
On Thursday, Mooney criticized Biden’s budget proposal on Twitter, saying it will “send our country on the downward economic spiral of more taxes, more debt, more inflation. House Republicans are committed to finding a sensible, reasonable, and responsible response to our debt crisis & getting our country’s finances in order.”
Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has held his seat since 2007, is a staunch progressive, a quality that played well with voters under President Barack Obama but appears to have fallen out of favor in recent years.
Besides state Sen. Matt Dolan, who has already announced his campaign for Brown’s seat, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) is also rumored to be considering entering the contest.
Montana
Republicans are zeroing in on selecting their pick to try and bump Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) next year. Tester allowed Democrats a sigh of relief when he announced he was planning to run for reelection last month. But the relief was short-lived as the party had to go into an immediate defense crouch.
While the National Republican Senatorial Committee is reportedly preparing Tim Sheehy to challenge Tester, Reps. Ryan Zinke and Matt Rosendale are possible alternatives.
Rosendale slammed Biden’s budget on Twitter Thursday, saying the government’s “deficit problem is a spending problem, not a revenue problem.”
Biden’s budget proposal proves that he’s out of touch with the American people. He wants to further raise taxes on hardworking Americans to pay for his party’s radical agenda.
Our deficit is a spending problem, not a revenue problem.https://t.co/hW0DvhO0mx
— Matt Rosendale (@RepRosendale) March 9, 2023
Spending has been a top priority for the GOP in its return to power in the House, and a $7 trillion Biden budget that hypes raising taxes but doesn’t say anything about spending cuts has only emboldened budget hawks.
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However, while the House has the power and majority to stymie Biden’s spending plans, members and leadership will be keeping an eye on the future when it comes down to putting their name beside a vote to curb popular programs.
“Whenever House members run for Senate, their voting records are fair game,” Conant told the outlet. “And I think if Republicans make some unpopular votes in the House, that would likely catch up to them on the campaign trail in the Senate.”
