The 2024 House map is beginning to take shape and shows Republicans with an early advantage over Democrats in the brawl for House control, setting the stage for what is likely to be a contentious election cycle.
All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered to be competitive, with most of those currently held by Democrats compared to Republicans — giving the GOP a slight advantage as they prepare for the next election cycle.
DEMOCRATS ON DEFENSE AS 2024 SENATE MAP BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report released its first ratings for the 2024 House playing field, with 10 Democratic seats considered tossups compared to just nine for Republicans. Several of the tossup races for Democrats are in Ohio and North Carolina, which are currently navigating legal challenges that could shift congressional boundaries come 2024.
“Republicans do have a huge insurance policy: the upcoming re-redistricting of North Carolina and Ohio, where temporary maps were used for the 2022 cycle by court order,” said David Wasserman, senior editor of Cook Political Report. “In both states, Republicans captured state supreme court majorities in November, potentially allowing GOP-led legislatures to pass fresh gerrymanders for 2024. In theory, they could eviscerate up to seven Democratic seats — effectively doubling their current House margin.”
Approximately 46 lawsuits were filed in 22 states seeking to overturn newly redrawn congressional maps that were implemented ahead of the midterm elections, according to the Democracy Docket, a liberal voting rights organization. Roughly 32% of those lawsuits challenged maps for alleged partisan bias, with the majority of those being filed in Ohio and North Carolina.
If those lawsuits pan out, it could change political boundaries in the two battleground states in Republicans’ favor.
Meanwhile, four of the nine tossup seats for Republicans are in New York, where the GOP showed a strong performance in the 2022 midterm elections. However, Republicans do have one vulnerability in New York: the seat held by embattled Rep. George Santos (R-NY).
New York’s 3rd Congressional District has been held by Democrats over the last decade before Santos flipped the seat red in 2022. However, the seat is predicted to lean Democratic as Santos is considered to be “the single most doomed incumbent in the House,” according to the Cook Political Report.
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Although Republicans show an early advantage, it is still too early for any predictions to be made about which party will hold a majority in the lower chamber — and not all hope is lost for Democrats.
Of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.
