Before Republicans can take the abortion fight to the Democrats in the midterm elections, they first must navigate an intraparty dispute: try to redraw the battle lines on this polarizing social issue in a way that is most favorable to to the GOP or keep the focus on areas where President Joe Biden’s record is unambiguously unpopular.
Federal legislation introduced by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) that would ban abortion after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother helps reframe Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization as allowing a public policy that the public has embraced in a number of polls but Roe v. Wade forbade. It also forces Democrats to defend abortion in instances where their own position cuts against the public.
Democrats are for their parts eager to cast the legislation as a “national abortion ban,” potentially swinging public opinion on the issue further left at a time when they were on the defensive over inflation.
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Biden and congressional Democrats were attempting to lead a White House celebration of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. But the 8.3% inflation rate in August was worse than expected, a Harris poll for the Harvard Center for American Political Studies found a majority believed the legislation would worsen inflation despite its name, and the Dow posted its worst close in almost two years as the spike in consumer prices (especially for goods like groceries) showed little sign of abating.
Democrats quickly reached for their pro-choice lifeline. “While MAGA Republicans are fixated on their extremist agenda, like a national abortion ban, Democrats are focused on creating jobs, lowering costs, and bringing the country together,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said at the White House event.
“Today, while President Biden and Vice President [Kamala] Harris are focused on the historic passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and taking action to reduce the cost of prescription drugs, healthcare, and energy, and unprecedented action to address climate change as well, Republicans in Congress are focused on taking rights away for millions — millions of women across the country,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said beforehand at Tuesday’s briefing.
This was almost verbatim repetition of Jean-Pierre’s earlier written statement in response to Graham’s bill. “Today, Senator Graham introduced a national ban on abortion which would strip away women’s rights in all 50 states,” she wrote. “This bill is wildly out of step with what Americans believe.”
Only Biden and the Democrats can save voters from this “out of step” bill, she added.
“President Biden and Congressional Democrats are committed to restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade in the face of continued radical steps by elected Republicans to put personal health care decisions in the hands of politicians instead of women and their doctors, threatening women’s health and lives,” Jean-Pierre wrote.
How out of step with public opinion the Republican antiabortion bill is remains to be seen. A Harvard/Harris poll, the biggest taken since Dobbs was handed down by the Supreme Court, found 72% would support the Mississippi 15-week abortion ban the majority of justices upheld even as 55% of respondents said they favored the Roe decision that would have mandated the law be struck down.
A Wall Street Journal poll taken before Dobbs found the plurality support for a 15-week abortion ban, but the public was much more closely divided: 48% were in favor while 43% were against. Some subsequent WSJ polling appears to suggest a drop in support for the ban post-Dobbs, but the wording used differs.
Abortion polling is highly responsive to shifts in current events, but also whether things like rape exceptions are specified in proposed laws. Gallup found a plurality picked the “pro-life” label on abortion over “pro-choice” as recently as May 2019. The pro-choice edge in May 2021 was a miniscule 49% to 47%, within the margin of error.
This May, when a draft of the Dobbs majority opinion leaked to the press, the breakdown was 55% pro-choice to 39% pro-life. At the same time, 50% said abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances, 35% under any circumstances, and 13% picked illegal in all.
Since Dobbs, Democrats have enjoyed an advantage in most abortion polling that they hope will allow them to compete in the midterms. This has left Republicans split over whether to erode that advantage by forcing Democrats to defend their own less popular abortion policies or to keep attention on other issues, like inflation.
“In the weeks since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democrats have spent millions of dollars telling voters that the first thing Republicans will do if they take power is to ban every single abortion nationwide — including when the mother’s life is in danger,” Frank Cannon of the socially conservative American Principles Project wrote after abortion rights supporters prevailed in a Kansas ballot initiative. “In response to this, Republican leadership has come up with their own brilliant strategy to counter the left’s argument. They plan to say absolutely nothing. Instead, when cornered, federal Republicans will vaguely gesture towards the state legislatures and then reflexively pivot to a diatribe about gas prices and inflation.”
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Many GOP operatives fear this is an unwinnable argument in the current media landscape and would prefer, to whatever extent is possible, to return to the pre-Dobbs issue environment that showed Republicans heavily favored in November. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), an important figure in confirming the anti-Roe Supreme Court majority, is not committing to bringing Graham’s bill up for a vote.
“Dow down 1000, inflation report this morning at 8.3%, the economy in shambles and the only thing the media can talk about is a proposed 15-week abortion restriction that has next to zero chance of becoming law,” tweeted Republican strategist Josh Holmes, a former McConnell chief of staff. “Amazing alternate universe.”
