Since losing key races in the midterm elections, Republicans turned their attention to vulnerable Democratic seats for the 2024 Senate election. Now, GOP leaders are narrowing their focus on more marginal swing states as pickups to flip the upper chamber next cycle.
GOP candidates are lining up either to replace or succeed longtime Democratic incumbent senators in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These three states helped former President Donald Trump win the election in 2016 but cost him reelection in 2020.
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Republicans underperformed expectations in 2022 by running far-right candidates against Democrats and allowing them to keep their majority in the Senate. As the 2024 cycle begins to churn, the party appears to be reconsidering if it wants to back Trump-endorsed candidates who flirted with election denial and scared off swing voters or if a path to success is more achievable with centrist candidates who can appeal to independent voters.
Here are the Republican candidates lining up to take on Senate Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2024.
Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is up for reelection this cycle. She remains popular within the state since winning her seat in 2012. Since then, she’s won both reelection campaigns. However, her seat leans Democratic as Republicans prepare to fight an uphill battle to replace her.
The battle is starting to be harder than some GOP leaders thought after Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) announced he would seek reelection in the House rather than challenge Baldwin.
Wisconsin Republicans believed they found a strong challenger to the popular Baldwin in Gallagher. However, the rising star quashed that excitement.
In lieu of Gallagher, Wisconsin Republicans are looking at a slate of Trump-friendly candidates, led by Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who is the front-runner. Clarke holds a 30-point lead over Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), a member of the House Freedom Caucus and another candidate state party members are considering as a possibility to replace Baldwin.
Business leaders Scott Meyer and Eric Hovde are also considering campaigns, but they fall behind Tiffany and Clarke in polling.
Michigan
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is retiring after this term, making Michigan a crucial swing state for Republicans in 2024.
Michigan has been a reliably blue state in presidential contests since 1992, with a single exception coming in 2016, when Trump won 47.5% of the vote, compared to 47.3% of voters casting ballots for Hillary Clinton.
For 2024, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has already cleared the field for the Democrats. On the other side, Republicans are struggling to find a candidate who could win the seat that leans Democratic, according to the Cook Political Report.
There are only two Republican candidates, both low profile and unlikely to gain much traction against Slotkin: Nikki Snyder, a member of the Michigan Board of Education, and Michael Hoover, a small-business owner. Snyder has slight national campaign experience. In 2020, she attempted to challenge Slotkin in the House but did not make the primary ballot because she did not turn in enough petition signatures.
Other rumored candidates include former Republican Rep. Peter Meijer and John Tuttle, who serves as vice chairman of the New York Stock Exchange.
However, Rep. John Moolenaar (R-MI) told Punchbowl News it was still early and that he expects more GOP candidates to enter the race.
“There are people looking at it right now. Ultimately, who will make that decision, I don’t know,” Moolenaar said. “We have a Mackinac Republican [Leadership] Conference in September, and my assumption is that anyone who’s interested will be declared by then to be a full-blown candidate.”
Pennsylvania
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is up for reelection next cycle, with Cook Political Report marking his seat as lean Democratic. In this swing state, there is significantly more solidarity within the Republican Party as it hopes to secure a key seat that could flip the Senate.
Republicans began rallying around the idea of nominating a strong candidate ever since Casey announced his reelection campaign in April. And former gubernatorial primary candidate David McCormick appears to be that candidate.
McCormick launched his expected bid for the 2024 Senate race in early 2023, coming off a fresh loss to Republican candidate Mehmet Oz in the 2022 midterm elections. Oz, who was backed by Trump, lost in the general election to Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA).
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Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, signaled the party would stand behind McCormick in February. Since then, other congressional Republicans have offered their support of McCormick.
“We’re going to do everything we can in Pennsylvania to make sure that he is our sole serious candidate,” Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) told Punchbowl News. “Everybody is getting behind him. We just hope he decides to do it. He’s a great American, he’s talented, he’s got it all.”
