MIAMI — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has eased the immediate pressure on his campaign with a solid performance during the third 2024 Republican debate in Miami.
But with former President Donald Trump dominating the primary and competition from former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for second place, his long-term strategy is being tested.
REPUBLICAN DEBATE: WINNERS AND LOSERS OF THIRD GOP MATCHUP IN MIAMI
University of Michigan debate coach Aaron Kall was “dubious” that Wednesday’s debate would “propel” DeSantis in the primary against Trump before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15.
“Trump’s continued refusal to participate in the process and extended duration between the debates is a big reason for this,” Kall told the Washington Examiner.
But for University of Iowa politics professor Timothy Hagel, Iowa is less about the debates and more about demonstrating “he has what it takes to win and to get things done if he does.”
“The problem, of course, is that a lot of voters want Trump,” Hagel said. “The reasons vary — rally around Trump because he’s being politically persecuted, Trump will drain the swamp, etc. — but the key for DeSantis and Haley will be whether the not-Trump voters unite behind one of them sufficiently to either beat Trump or at least finish a strong second here.”
“That seems less likely when polls are released showing that Trump could beat Biden,” he added. “We often see movement once we get really close to caucus night, but in this race, it probably depends more on what happens to Trump than what the other candidates do.”
DeSantis communications director Andrew Romeo told the Washington Examiner he had confidence in the governor as people become distracted by the holidays.
“I don’t think we’ve stayed relatively stagnant,” Romeo said. “If you look at public polling in Iowa in October and November, it’s not really indicative of who’s going to win [the] Iowa caucus. You shouldn’t look at the polls. You should follow the money. If you follow the money, then you’ll realize that Donald Trump has spent a million dollars this week attacking us because he knows we’re rising and he knows that we have [Iowa Gov.] Kim Reynolds’s endorsement, and that’s going to do a great deal of good for our campaign.”
DeSantis, Romeo said, is “creating momentum every day. The governor likes to say this campaign is going to be a 3 yards and a cloud of dust campaign. … We’re going to keep blocking and tackling every day, and we’re going to push forward and win this thing.”
Despite the time and energy DeSantis has expended criticizing Haley, Romeo was adamant the primary is still a two-man race between Trump and the governor.
“Nikki Haley offered moral clarity and toughness on Israel, Ukraine, China, and so many other issues,” Haley press secretary Ken Farnaso said. “DeSantis offered chaos, confusion, and more lies. The Miami debate confirms what all the polls already show: Nikki is the most formidable Trump and [President Joe] Biden challenge.”
DeSantis himself described his priority during the debate as “articulating [his] vision directly” to Republicans, as opposed to his opponents or the moderators. But since the first outing last August in Milwaukee, the governor’s average national primary support has remained at 14%, according to RealClearPolitics. It has similarly been static in Iowa at 17%.
DeSantis conceded he did watch “a little bit” of Trump’s counterprogramming rally in nearby Hialeah, Florida, during which the former president mocked the debate and debaters.
“It’s like deja vu all over again,” DeSantis told Fox News. “You go back to 2016, [and] he is saying a lot of the same things and promising a lot of the same things he didn’t deliver on. Border wall built with Mexico paying for it didn’t happen, drain the swamp didn’t happen, reducing the debt didn’t happen — we added more.”
In a memo this week, the DeSantis campaign contended the governor “is the only candidate that has appeal on both the Trump and non-Trump sides of the party.”
“If DeSantis is out of the race, his ballot share will largely move to Trump and end this primary immediately,” the campaign said. “Between the campaign and super PAC, there are more than six supportive DeSantis offices across [Iowa] and there will soon be almost 50 dedicated, paid staff. … Team DeSantis is the only campaign that has reserved ad time in Iowa after the window that opens on Dec. 1 — with total media placement of $2.4 million and growing.”
In a separate memo, the Haley campaign scrutinized DeSantis for spending $100 million since his announcement, claiming he has essentially “lit [it] on fire.”
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“Even if DeSantis were to do well in Iowa, which is a big ‘if’ given his current decline, he is in such a weak position in New Hampshire and South Carolina that it doesn’t matter,” campaign manager Betsy Ankney wrote. “With only 8 days between Iowa and New Hampshire, even a strong showing in Iowa won’t make up for his weak numbers in New Hampshire.”
Trump averages 47% in Iowa, compared to DeSantis’s 17%, Haley’s 14%, Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-SC) 7%, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy’s 5%, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s 4%, according to RealClearPolitics.
