As Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) weighs throwing his hat into the Montana Senate race, top Republicans are bracing for what could be a new hurdle in gaining a majority in the upper chamber.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee landed a major victory in recruiting former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy into the Montana Senate race in June to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). While GOP leaders have made their pick, Rosendale, one of the most conservative House members, hinted that he could be plotting a Senate comeback bid earlier this month.
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“Over the last several months, I’ve been humbled by the overwhelming support I’ve received from Montanans to challenge Jon Tester, including dozens of state legislators that I’ve had the pleasure of serving with, and the Montana speaker of the House and the Senate president,” Rosendale said in a video posted on social media on Dec. 6.
“While I was truly honored and privileged to represent the people of eastern Montana in Congress, it is difficult for me to stand by and allow Mitch McConnell and the uniparty to sell our country short and attempt to select our next senator,” he added.
While it is truly an honor and a privilege to represent the people of Eastern Montana in Congress, it’s difficult for me to stand by and allow Mitch McConnell and the Uniparty sell our country short and attempt to select our next senator! ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/bu1I6FxcEM
— Matt Rosendale (@MattForMontana) December 7, 2023
Still, doubts remain that Rosendale could unseat Tester after he failed to do so in 2018. Also looming over the Senate race is the coveted endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who has not yet made his pick in the GOP primary.
Should Rosendale secure Trump’s endorsement, it would buck Republican leaders’ intentions to clear the field in Montana for Sheehy, their preferred candidate. But efforts from Rosendale to win over Trump’s endorsement could be a losing battle after advisers for the former president were irked by Rosendale’s promotion of a run-in he had with Trump despite not yet having endorsed him at the time, according to CNN.
The Montana congressman was fundraising at Mar-a-Lago when he bumped into Trump. The encounter was captured on social media, in which Rosendale said Trump was “the best president of my lifetime” and that the Senate needed “strong conservatives” to enact the former president’s agenda.
Rosendale had held off on endorsing the former president’s campaign but finally did so a couple of days later in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“If we are going to undo the disaster inflicted by the ‘trifecta:’ Biden, Schumer, and McConnell, we must re-elect Trump as President,” he wrote.
Rosendale defended the timing of his endorsement, claiming it was a strategic move in an interview with CNN.
“I just thought it would be more beneficial for the endorsement to come in at this time,” he said. “There’s a lot of people that rushed out at the beginning of it, and I didn’t need to be part of a big crowd. I just wanted to make sure that it stood out as a single endorsement and it would have more impact.”
Five years ago, then-President Trump traveled to Montana to stump for Rosendale five times. Last summer, Trump told Rosendale in a private conversation that he wouldn’t endorse his run for Senate, according to reporting from CNN.
Montana and Washington, D.C.-based Republicans believe Trump may ultimately stay out of this primary and offer no endorsements. Some strategists are worried that the move could backfire for Sheehy.
“By Trump not offering an endorsement of Sheehy, that could give Rosendale an opportunity to get into this race,” said a Montana-based GOP strategist who preferred to stay anonymous. “Many of the constituents identify with his conservative ideology, but the problem is that he doesn’t win general elections.”
There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans, and nearly all competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) tries to maintain his slim majority.
Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold 51 seats in the chamber. Of the Senate Democrats up for reelection, seven are in states that went for Trump in 2016, 2020, or both. There are no Republican seats up in states won by either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or President Joe Biden in 2020.
National Republicans view Montana as a top pickup opportunity for them this cycle.
Trump carried the state by 16 percentage points in 2020, less than he won in 2016. However, national Republicans are pointing out that Democratic state lawmakers lost races in Great Falls and Cascade County, and Republicans gained a supermajority in the state legislature.
Rosendale has been a thorn in the side of establishment Republicans throughout this year. He opposed McCarthy’s speaker bid and helped contribute to the five-day, 15-vote floor fight that ensued in January. Then, last spring, he voted against suspending the debt ceiling.
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Following that, he was one of nearly a dozen rabble-rousers who paralyzed the House early this summer after rejecting a procedural move to set rules for legislative debate as retribution for McCarthy’s role in making a deal with Biden to suspend the debt limit. He also voted against a temporary government funding bill to keep the government open over the weekend. Rosendale was also one of a handful of Republicans in October who cast their vote to oust McCarthy from his position as speaker.
The deadline for Rosendale to file for the Senate race is March 11, 2024.
