The Russian military is preparing a major offensive in Ukraine sometime within the next six months, analysts say.
The Institute for the Study of War documented numerous changes that indicate Russia is preparing its military for “decisive strategic action.”
A report from the think tank notes that Russia is “taking steps to conduct the ‘special military operation’ as a major conventional war.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense has begun industrial and infrastructural reorganization intended to better position the Russian state for war, indicating a further shift in Russia’s strategic thinking toward fighting in Ukraine.
The ISW outlined five “lines of effort” from Russia that appear to show preparations for decisive action in the next half year. They are:
1. The Kremlin is intensifying both near- and long-term force-generation efforts.
2. The Russian military is conserving mobilized personnel for future use.
3. Russia is attempting to reinvigorate its defense industrial base.
4. Putin is re-centralizing control of the war effort in Ukraine under the Ministry of Defense and has appointed Russia’s senior-most uniformed officer, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, as theater commander.
5. The Kremlin is intensifying its conditioning of the Russian information space to support the war.
As for what the efforts are geared toward, the ISW narrowed it down to the two most likely outcomes: a large offensive or waiting for a Ukrainian counteroffensive to exploit. The two options, the report noted, are not mutually exclusive.
The report goes on to guess that the most likely location for a major offensive is around the Luhansk Oblast, which would possibly involve invasions from Russia proper, namely from Belgorod into Kharkiv Oblast, which Russian forces were kicked out of in September. Offensives into Zaporozhye or Kherson are unlikely given the defensive constructions of forces there.
A new Russian offensive into Kyiv is unlikely in the upcoming months. The report noted that Russian forces are not currently deployed in Belarus in a manner that would suggest a planned offensive into the Ukrainian capital anytime soon.
However, a large-scale military exercise in Belarus is planned for September. A new offensive against Kyiv proper would be more likely to occur at that time rather than in the next few months.
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The report also stressed that the new offensive shouldn’t be viewed as a last-ditch Russian effort to win the war. The Kremlin appears to be simultaneously restructuring in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. While a new offensive would look to regain momentum, it would be unlikely to be of such a grand scale as to aim to conquer the whole country in one swoop.
Despite this, the ISW believes that Russia still aims to conquer the entirety of Ukraine and that its battlefield shortcomings have not affected the Kremlin’s goals in the conflict.
