Russia’s New Defense Minister: Who Is He and What It Means for the Ukraine Conflict

After President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration, he approved a new Russian government, bringing in new names and faces.

Many have been paying attention to this shuffle of cards, watching the shakedown settle and take form in new positions.

After all, these developments can have long-standing consequences not just for Russia but also for the rest of the world.

The most eyebrow-raising among them was President Putin’s new Russian Minister of Defense, Andrey Belousov, an economist and civilian politician with seemingly no ties to the military. He replaced Sergei Shoigu, a longtime loyalist, drawing some criticism and surprise.

However, it’s not as strange as it seems.

In the Russian public perception, Shoigu’s term as the Minister of Defense was unremarkable at best. Initiatives coming from him and news reports that involved his personality were generally met slightly negatively or indifferently.

But everything changed after the day the chief of PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who ran mercenary units for the Russian army in Ukraine, brought his feud with Shoigu to light.

Increasing demands for ammunition soon grew into outright accusations of a hastily prepared war and of the sabotage of the entire offensive – something Shoigu was the figurehead of, according to the Wagner kingpin.

Indeed, Prigozhin even believed that the entire special military operation was orchestrated so that Shoigu would get a promotion and oligarchs would get to put Viktor Medvedchuk into the seat of the president of Ukraine.

This conflict festered for a while, until turning into what we now know as Prigozhin’s mutiny: Wagner troops turned their tanks and their guns around and marched to Moscow meeting almost zero resistance, casting the entire nation into a state of panic.

Of course, we know that the conflict was ultimately resolved, and PMC Wagner didn’t reach Moscow – who knows what might have happened if Prigozhin decided to double down on his initial plans? He didn’t deal much material damage then; however, there was significant moral damage dealt to Russia – as his mutiny left a lot to be contemplated.

And what the Russian leadership did was contemplate.

Ultimately it would spell the end for Prigozhin, who died in a mysterious plane crash many deemed a successful assassination ordered by Putin.

But the mutiny left a very sour taste in the mouths of the Russian authorities: and the first one to find himself under fire was Shoigu. The analysis of the public reaction back during the mutiny shows shocking results – a lot of people in Russia in fact supported Prigozhin’s cause (not his personality, however) and held absolutely zero sympathy for his opponent, Shoigu. The authorities themselves after the mutiny preferred to keep mainly silent regarding the Minister of Defense and his helpless reaction to the soldiers marching straight for the Kremlin to depose him.

The public, however, wasn’t so reserved. Shoigu fell under ruthless criticism. Each piece of news even mentioning the name of Shoigu in some positive light was met with an avalanche of dislikes, insults, and outrage (just look at the reactions on this Telegram post on June 26, 2023). Shoigu’s 12-year term as the Minister of Defense was split into two, with Prigozhin’s mutiny being the blade that split it. If before he evoked mostly neutral reactions from the public, after that he was public enemy Number One.

Eventually, the hurricane of negativity died down as the attention of the public shifted elsewhere and as the mutiny paled in the public memory – especially after its leader’s death. If one was to revisit these turbulent times, they would stand in amazement – how come Shoigu didn’t get the boot back then? And that, indeed, was the public speculation at the time, with possible candidates instead of the disgraced sitting minister being thrown around.

But, although Shoigu somehow hung on to his position (some say thanks to his personal ties to Putin), it was clear that that wouldn’t last.

To add insult to injury, yet another shadow was cast on the former Minister of Defense, when one of his deputies, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on corruption charges.

It all lasted until the recent inauguration of Putin. Now, Sergei Shoigu serves as Secretary of the Security Council. On this post, he replaced Nikolai Patrushev, who occupied this position since 2008. Before that, the latter served as the director of the Federal Security Service. Some argue that the Security Council acts like a sort of fish tank for expired officials, where they are sent into this internal political exile when they are too important to simply dismiss yet too useless to keep on positions that actually matter. But even that is not all.

Enter Rostec Corporation.

Prigozhin was not the only one to have a personal feud with Shoigu.

Not so long ago, yet another conflict of the former Minister of Defense was made public – with Rostec Corporation CEO Sergey Chemezov. During a meeting in Rostov-on-Don, Shoigu expressed his discontent with Rostec Corporation (one of the largest suppliers of the Russian military): he wanted to expedite the process of armament supplies into the zone of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.

However, Chemezov, as the CEO, didn’t shy away from this criticism.

Instead, he provided data showing a significant increase in the production and repair of military vehicles: the volume of production for tanks and howitzers, according to Chemezov, had increased several times over.

When such critical matters are brought to the public sphere, it usually signifies how serious the conflict between the military and the military-industrial complex is, baring deep-reaching problems in the system.

Chemezov has well-known ties to Putin. He, for example, served with Putin in the KGB back when the KGB was a thing – they were both posted to Dresden, in Soviet-controlled East Germany, which was Putin’s last KGB posting before the fall of the Soviet Union.

Since that very time, they have been working very closely together, Chemezov serving as the head of different organizations under Putin.

In 2007, he was appointed by Putin as the CEO of Russian Technologies Corporation – later renamed Rostec. In 2019, his total family income almost reached 2 billion rubles.

Some speculate that Belousov will be a much more welcome minister for Chemezov than Shoigu ever was.

Indeed, Chemezov himself, following the appointment of Belousov as Minister of Defense, said that this appointment was “unexpected but a right decision.”

According to him, the Russian defense military field right now needs a man who will take a more economy-centered look at it. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov also noted that the Defense Ministry should be headed by a man “open to innovations,” and also stated that the military aspect of the ministry will not undergo any changes since it’s the responsibility of the General Staff.

Andrey Belousov is not a very public state official.

According to some sources, the appointment of Belousov as the Minister of Defense was a surprise even for Belousov himself.

Here’s what he said (translated from Russian) during his speech in the Russian Security Council: “I pledge all my strength, health, and, if it will be necessary, life to fulfill the task set for me.”

He also finished his speech on a “personal principle” note.

According to him, this is a bulletproof principle he has always followed: “it is all right for one to make mistakes, it is not all right to lie.”

He didn’t forget to touch upon the hottest and the most anxiety-ridden topic for the Russian population, stating that there will be no mobilization.

His main task, according to him, will be raising the effectiveness of military expenses – true to his nature as an economist through and through.

It would seem that President Putin doesn’t perceive the position of the Minister of Defense as a post meant for a hard-line officer, leaving this rather for the General Staff.

Neither Shoigu nor Belousov served in the Russian military, so instead the position of the minister is seemingly viewed as an administrative post.

From that point of view, the appointment of Belousov is more than justified – a trusted and loyal economist really does have a chance to straighten up military supply lines and optimize the economic flow of the entire complex. The Russians are acutely aware of how Ronald Reagan used economic forces to break the Soviet Union in 1991.

It’s not the least due to the endorsement of such military-industrial complex mastodons as Chemezov that this happened.

So what does this appointment mean for the ongoing war in Ukraine? Because of the purely administrative nature of the new appointment and the person at the helm, some speculate that this means that the war will drag on for even longer than anticipated, and that Putin is preparing for a long exhausting conflict.

On the one hand, it seems logical, this conflict indeed has transformed into a war of attrition; with Western aid slow and delayed, it is a game of who has the ammunition and armaments and who doesn’t.

With such a glaring weakness on the Ukrainian side, about which they have been pleading for months, it would be irrational from the Russian point of view not to press the sore spot even harder.

The new Minister of Defense is not supposed to play tin soldiers and move them across the map – this was left for the General Staff; instead, as Putin envisions this position as mainly non-military but administrative, Belousov will be charged with the task of optimizing and organizing logistical and budget processes, “oiling” the screeching war machine steered by the General Staff.

The economy of Russia seems to be preparing for an even harder lean towards the military. Apart from that, Belousov already has some experience dealing with drones (perhaps one of the biggest parts of this modern conflict), for example, curating a corresponding Russian national project.

According to sources, he was also the one who was curating the affairs of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of PMC Wagner (with whom he had frequent meetings and was reportedly on very friendly terms). Some Russian Telegram channels, close to the General Staff, claim that this appointment will herald the beginning of a massive audit of the military sector.

On the other hand, it might mean that Putin plans to pile on more pressure on Ukraine, before substantial and consistent aid has the chance to arrive, trying to finish his special military operation much faster.

With Western supplies to Ukraine dragging on, and the Russian military-industrial complex’s new optimized vigor, Putin would be rolling his battering ram towards perhaps the largest crack in the Ukrainian war effort and capabilities.

From this point of view, Belousov seems the right choice. It remains to be seen, however, how the economic prowess of this man can tackle the slew of problems and nuances that comes with the new territory, the hulking and corruption-riddled giant of the military-industrial complex.

Artem Belov is an authort and translator with a Master’s in Engineering and a Certificate in Competing Regionalisms from Tartu University, Estonia. With a deep-rooted interest in political theory, regionalism, and international politics, as well as his solid knowledge of Russian affairs, he explores the relationship between Russia and the world. He can be reached at [email protected].

Image: Screen shot from France 24 English video, via YouTube