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August 13, 2022

At this historical moment, somewhere around half the country remains ready to utter some version of “good riddance” to Donald Trump.  And yet, in the not too distant future, a solid majority of Americans may well find themselves thanking Mr. Trump not once, but perhaps three or even four times.

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For starters, he deserves thanks for running and winning in 2016.  Secondly, he can be thanked for running and losing in 2020.  (Stay tuned on that one.)  Then there remains the hope that he soon might be thanked for choosing, Coolidge-like, not to run in 2024 before being slapped on the back a fourth time for supporting the political party that he has played a crucial role in remaking.

That would be the same Republican Party that came into being in the mid-19th century, when Abraham Lincoln’s Whig Party could not be remade.  This would also be the same political party that Trump could destroy, if he should choose to abandon it.

All of this presumes that the eventual Republican nominee 1) presides over a big tent GOP that includes Trump constituents; 2) essentially follows Trump policies, domestic and foreign; 3) exhibits a Trumpian willingness to fight; and 4) wins the two terms that Trump did not.  After all, it will likely take two full terms of Republican executive and legislative governance to set the country on a course that is at once new and old.

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Such a sustained victory would confirm that the country had finally reversed what President Obama once deemed inevitable — namely, that an “arc of history” is forever bending in the progressive direction of an ever more centralized administrative state.  That would be the very state that has been growing in fits and starts for better than a century now.

Such a state has long been in the process of becoming an increasingly secular state.  In truth, such a state could only be a secular state.  Such a state must also be reversed, but not to impose a state-sponsored religion.  Not at all.  An increasingly secular people have demanded and will continue to demand an ever more powerful state.  A return to religious faith would constitute a return to the vision of the founders, meaning a republic of limited government.  Such a republic, said John Adams, is fit for only a religious people.    

If such a reversal does occur, Trump might eventually — and ironically — be  credited with helping to spark it, not to mention the country’s renewal and revival.  To be sure, this reversal will not be without its own fits and starts, since history is always a story of people acting rather than history “arcing.”

There might even be a bipartisan tinge to the whole thing.  After all, the original centralizing thrust was initiated by progressives of both major parties.  As time went on, the Democrats became the senior partner in this operation, while Republicans were reduced to a supportive role.  Wouldn’t it be ironic if the two parties reversed their senior/junior roles as the country reversed its course?

In any case, there is no inevitable “arc” to any nation’s history.  Instead, there are choices.  If centralized consolidation is a series of choices, as it surely has been, so will be the story of its reversal.  For that matter, if decline is a choice, so is a revival.  The same goes for choices that the Democrats have made since their sweep (?), such as it was, in 2020.

In 2020, the Democrats won nothing at all comparable to their massive majorities of the 1930s and 1960s that ushered in the New Deal and the Great Society.  Nonetheless, in their giddiness at having rid the country of Trump, the Democrats pressed ahead in 2021 as if it were 1933 or 1965 all over again.