Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley‘s standout performance during the first GOP primary debate in Milwaukee garnered the 2024 candidate praise for her ability to handle the other presidential candidates on the debate stage with the conviction and poise needed of the Republican Party’s next standard bearer.
Haley’s clashes with former Vice President Mike Pence and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy were notable moments that catapulted her over fellow South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott‘s relatively tame night and could be the beginning of a surging campaign moment.
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Katon Dawson, the former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party and a Haley surrogate, told the Washington Examiner the former governor’s debate performance was a “wonderful introduction” to members of the GOP electorate who may not have known who she was.
“Nikki’s battle-tested like no one else on the stage, really,” Dawson said. “At the end of the day, this was one where some people probably got disqualified. Nikki Haley got promoted. She did a good job representing herself, representing the issues, the grasp of the knowledge that she has about it. And she’s she’s ready for prime time. Some of the others are not.”
Veteran Republican consultant Frank Luntz opined that “Nikki Haley may have just won the #GOPDebate with that foreign policy exchange” in regards to Haley’s blunt comments to Ramaswamy over his stances on the Russia-Ukraine war. “This guy is a murderer, and you are choosing a murderer,” Haley said about Ramaswamy’s previous comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Under your watch, you will make America less safe. You have no foreign policy experience and it shows.”
It was a notable moment that won Haley plaudits. “She has destroyed Vivek,” Luntz added.
Haley’s debate performance also outshined Scott, whom some political commentators said played too meek. “Tim is too polite,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist based in Florida. “And I understand that he’s right when he says, ‘Well, when we go at it, the Democrats are gonna try to use that as fodder.’ But Tim is too polite. And people want to hear from Tim, and he has to find a way next time around to inject himself into that debate. He’s got a lot to offer.”
Contrast that with Haley, whom O’Connell told the Washington Examiner “did much better than expected.” The Florida strategist added that a key strength of Haley came from her appeal to women voters who have drifted from the Republican Party in recent elections. “I think that she was absolutely right to stress the importance of appealing to female voters,” O’Connell said of Haley, the sole woman on the debate stage. “Which is long been, particularly unmarried female voters, it’s been a real issue for the Republican Party, and she’s right to hammer home on that.”
Haley’s conversation with Pence during the debate over abortion offered another illustration of the former ambassador’s nuanced stance on a topic of huge concern to women. “Let’s treat this like the respectful issue that it is and humanize the situation and stop demonizing the situation,” Haley told Pence during their abortion clash. She also primarily called for a “consensus” on a federal abortion ban and questioned if the GOP could agree “that we are not going to put a woman in jail or give her the death penalty if she gets an abortion?”
However, Patrick L. Arnold, CEO of the Arnold Group, a political consulting firm based in South Carolina, argued that Haley and Scott’s debate performances can’t be compared to one another due to their personality differences. “He came off as honest, as measured like an adult trying to convince a bunch of professional wrestlers to put down their metal chairs. [He] seemed like an equalizer on that stage,” Arnold said of Scott. “And more importantly, he came off as a storyteller.”
“That was very different than what you saw come from Gov. Haley, who came out of the gate like she was pushing a lot of those major players into their lockers,” he continued. “It was a great show of strength. I was not surprised by that. I’ve known Gov. Haley from her time here in South Carolina, and she’s an incredible fighter.”
But despite a stellar moment in Milwaukee, the former ambassador and South Carolina governor will still need to face the hurdle that is the current Republican front-runner: former President Donald Trump.
“Nikki Haley had a good night. She certainly presented herself as the most electable, pre-2016 Republican. And what I mean by that is she fit the mold of a pre-Trump Republican nominee,” national Republican strategist Brian Seitchik told the Washington Examiner. “The question is, is that what the primary electorate wants right now?” In comparison, Scott “did not have a so-called breakout moment,” Seitchik added. “I don’t think he did anything to really capture the hearts and minds of primary voters.”
Yet O’Connell claimed that Haley may not have the stamina to overtake Trump. “It would take a seismic event for Trump not to be the nominee,” he said.
Haley and Scott both poll in the low single digits, with Haley at 3.2% slightly leading Scott at 3.1% in a RealClearPolitics poll average. Trump, the front-runner, polls at 55.4%, more than 52 percentage points above the two candidates.
In their crucial home state of South Carolina, where one of the first primaries will take place, both Haley and Scott are in double digits in the RealClearPolitics average. There have been fewer polls, however.
Trump snubbed the Republican National Committee and Fox News-sponsored debate on Wednesday, opting instead to release a prerecorded interview with Tucker Carlson in which he attacked several of his 2024 rivals, including top rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Yet on Thursday, he will surrender to Georgia authorities in relation to a Peach State indictment over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, which could damper attention from Haley’s triumphant debate moments.
The former president faces four criminal cases stemming from a hush money payment scheme with a porn star, allegations that Trump mishandled classified documents when he left office, and two indictments related to the 2020 election. Trump has maintained his innocence throughout the ordeal.
Timothy Head, executive director of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, suggested that Trump’s support among the GOP base has increased as his legal problems impact his ability to run for president in 2024. “The interesting element to his continued indictments is that while it probably makes his opponents hate him even more, it actually makes his supporters support him even more,” said Head. “It actually also makes I would say, tentative Trump voters more favorable, and that makes him more sympathetic to those to those tentative Trump voters.”
“For those that are open to supporting him, they’re more enthusiastic in supporting him now because they perceive him as being attacked, essentially, either by the Biden administration or by activist prosecutors that are politicizing their offices,” he added.
Poll numbers and fundraising figures in the weeks to come will help give a clearer picture as to who will become the definitive Trump-alternative candidate in the primary race. Haley, DeSantis, Scott, and the rest of the field are battling it on the campaign trail and debate stage but also face the herculean task of not alienating Trump-aligned voters.
“It’s not enough to just have a good showing in Milwaukee. The campaign has to see increased support, both financially and (in) crowd size in these early swing states. And we’re just not going to know that right away,” said Seitchik, the GOP strategist. “But having said that, if I’m one of the candidates and I woke up this morning, certainly Nikki Haley improved her position. And that’s not true of everyone else.”
In order to overtake Trump, Arnold, the South Carolina CEO, suggested candidates will need to stay authentic to their brand and personality style. “Not trying to mimic Trump or the next Trump or any trope like that,” Arnold said. “Because ultimately, you’re trying to split the vote of somebody who is likely going to keep their original base.”
For Haley and Scott in particular, “showing how you’ve grown to be a presidential candidate” could help them win during the Palmetto State’s primary next year, said Arnold.
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Dawson, the Haley surrogate, claimed that Haley’s campaign viability won’t be thwarted in the months to come.
“There’s gonna be a couple of people on the stage all the way through South Carolina, and Nikki’s gonna be one of those couple of people,” he said. “And she showed it last night. She’s got staying power. She has the resiliency to do it. She has a team built in to do it. She doesn’t waste any money. She’s frugal with it. She can do more with less. That’s how she ran the state of South Carolina. That’s how she’ll run the United States government.”
