All eyes are on the competitive House seat currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) in Virginia as the Democratic incumbent fuels rumors she may forgo reelection next year to instead run for governor.
Reports first circulated that Spanberger would retire from her Virginia seat earlier this year, which in turn would leave a seat up for grabs in one of the most competitive districts of the 2024 cycle. Those rumors intensified over the weekend after Spanberger reportedly told Virginia Democrats she would not run for reelection and would announce her gubernatorial bid sometime next week, according to Virginia Scope reporter Brandon Jarvis.
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Spanberger’s absence would leave open a key seat in Virginia, a state that has become more competitive over the last few election cycles. Spanberger has held the seat since 2019.
Spanberger has not publicly announced her plans, and a spokesperson for the Virginia Democrat has not yet responded to a request for comment by the Washington Examiner.
There are a handful of Democrats who could run to replace Spanberger should she bow out, setting the stage for what could be a crowded primary. Those who are expected to throw their hats in the ring include state Del. Elizabeth Guzman, state Sen. Jeremy McPike, former Del. Hala Ayala, and former National Security Council deputy legal adviser Yevgeny Vindman, among others.
Several Republicans have already announced their bids to run for the seat. Republican groups have been quick to seize on the rumors, citing Spanberger’s absence as a key pickup opportunity to expand their slim majority in the House next year.
“Abigail Spanberger’s departure makes an already competitive House seat all the more winnable next November and presents Republicans with a big opportunity to hold and expand the House majority,” Courtney Parella, communications director for the Congressional Leadership Fund, said in July when reports first surfaced Spanberger would retire.
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.
