Democrats could get a lifeline from split-ticket voters, part of a prevailing swing-state phenomenon from the last midterm election, who could help them hold on to their Senate majority this November.
In 2018, the last midterm election, 13 of the 18 states that had Senate and gubernatorial elections on the ballot saw Republican Senate nominees receive far fewer votes than the GOP gubernatorial nominees. That gap was as wide as 17 percentage points in some states, and in 2022, a number of key swing states are exhibiting a similar trend.
OBAMA TAKES SHOT AT TRUMP ON MIDTERM CAMPAIGN TRAIL
Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) has extended his lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams to 7.8 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average, yet Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee, is locked in a toss-up race against Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA).
Ohio’s incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) holds a near-20-point lead over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley, while J.D. Vance, the Trump-endorsed Republican Senate nominee, only leads Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) by 2 points.
The split-ticket phenomenon does appear in the reverse in some cases.
For instance, incumbent Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) also holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Doug Mastriano (R-PA), yet Lt. Gov. Jon Fetterman (D-PA) is in a toss-up race against Republican newcomer Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Liam Kerr, co-founder of the liberal Welcome PAC, told Newsweek that split-ticket voters are a “depolarizing force” in the current political climate.
“I think where the issues become really important is they create a way for a candidate to distance themselves from their party and have appeal as an individual,” said Kerr. “Oftentimes, that means finding a really salient issue that matters to voters and showing that you’re closer to them than your party is.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“You can find an issue that these independent voters really care about that they don’t trust your party on to distinguish yourself from your party on that issue,” he added. “That gives you that independence. That differentiation matters.”
