Two of the biggest military issues President Joe Biden faces are the war in Ukraine and how the new Republican-led House will approach defense spending moving forward.
Biden’s State of the Union address on Feb. 8 comes roughly two weeks ahead of the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Since then, Congress has approved $113 billion of aid and military assistance to Ukraine, though some members of the new Republican House majority would like to see that slow down or come to a halt.
RUSSIA’S WAR TAKING A TOLL ON UKRAINIAN CHILDREN
On the battlefield, both Russia and Ukraine are looking ahead to the spring. Both are expected to launch new offensives, and Biden’s recent decision to provide Ukraine with tanks will at least indirectly enhance Ukraine’s outlook. Biden announced the United States would be procuring 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks on Jan. 25, ending a stalemate with Germany, which refused to provide its tanks to Ukraine without the U.S. matching the contribution. But the U.S. tanks will not reach the battlefield for many months.
The U.S. is training Ukrainian troops on the Patriot missile system at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, while roughly 500 Ukrainian troops are participating in another training in Germany. U.S. forces have already trained more than 3,100 Ukrainian troops on how to use and maintain the weapons and other equipment that has been provided. This list includes howitzers, armored vehicles, and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, while other countries have also conducted similar training on the weapons they’ve given.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) needed to make concessions to conservatives to grab hold of the gavel. One of those concessions reportedly came in the form of agreeing to some cuts in defense spending, and he recently disputed the calculations that the proposal would result in a $75 billion cut. He reportedly agreed to cap spending at 2022 levels, which would effectively cut that amount from the $857 billion defense budget the Pentagon had in fiscal 2023.
“If we go back to ’22 levels, that was what we were spending just two or three weeks ago. That’s not cutting defense by $75 billion,” McCarthy said on Fox News on Sunday, Jan. 15. “Does defense getting more than $800 billion, are there areas that I think they could be more efficient in? Yeah. Eliminate all the money spent on ‘wokeism.’ Eliminate all the money that they’re trying to find different fuels and they’re worried about the environment to go through.”
While there’s also a small portion of the party that wants to end aid to Ukraine, McCarthy created a select committee on combating the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party, the Pentagon declaring China its “pacing challenge,” and said it’s the only power that has the intent and capability to reshape the international order in its favor.
The People’s Liberation Army is both rapidly growing its arsenal and increasing its aggressive behavior toward Taiwan, the island nation that considers itself independent despite China claiming it as part of its own territory.
A four-star Air Force general sent a memo to the officers he commands on Jan. 27 informing them of his belief and the preparations expected for a U.S. war with China by 2025, though his opinion is not shared by the department at large.
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“I hope I am wrong,” Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who heads Air Mobility Command, wrote. “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Jan. 11 that the U.S. is seeing “increased” activity around Taiwan, though he said he “seriously doubts” a Chinese invasion is imminent, while Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told reporters in November that he believes a Taiwan invasion would pose too much risk to Chinese President Xi Jinping at this time.
