Photo Credit: Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.
Gage Skidmore
There's a trend in the polling...Before discussing a potential Trump landslide, I want to summarize Biden’s debate performance. Below is an edited version of the lyrics to “One Night in Bangkok.”
One night in ’lanta makes a hard man humble
Not much between despair and ecstasy
One night in ’lanta and predictions crumble
Just one debate, and it’s a tragedy
The Dems are freaking, and it’s plain to see
Voters have had a look inside the Potemkin Presidency, and it is clear that many did not like what they saw. Most were shocked by Joe Biden’s performance and his apparent mental decline. Many were also angry at the White House staff and the news media for hiding Joe’s situation from the public.
The latest national post-debate polls show a definite movement in Trump’s favor. The five-way presidential election polling average at Real Clear Politics has Trump up by +4.2 points, even though one-third of the polls were taken before the debate. The three-way polling average at 538, which includes Robert Kennedy Jr., has Trump up over Biden by +2.3 points.
In a two-way matchup between Trump and Biden, both the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal polls have Trump ahead by +6. The two-way split at the national level no longer matters since it appears RFK Jr. may be able to get on the ballot in most of the fifty states.
Biden’s debate performance and the general impression that he is too old to run for President may lead to consequences few have foreseen. It is now within the realm of possibility that Donald Trump could win reelection in a landslide.
The real news comes from the battleground states. According to 538, Trump is now up by +5.7 in Arizona, +7 in Georgia, +2.5 in Michigan, +4.5 in Nevada, +8 in North Carolina, +2.4 in Pennsylvania, and +1.7 in Wisconsin. Unfortunately, no actual post-debate polls are available to confirm this, but 538 uses statistical averaging based on changes in the national popular vote to come up with these numbers.
I would love to tell you what the RCP battleground polls show, except there is not a single post-debate poll available in their averages. Their pre-debate averages have Trump in the lead by +5.6 in Arizona, +4 in Georgia, +1.2 in Michigan, +2.8 in Nevada, +6.7 in North Carolina, +3 in Pennsylvania, and tied in Wisconsin. I expect these states to shift toward Trump by +1 to +2 points as soon as more recent polls appear.
If you are wondering, Florida at Trump +10 and Iowa at Trump +18 were never battleground states for the 2024 election.
Most of you know the presidential race is about state electoral votes, not the popular vote. Before the debate, it looked like Trump had to win one of three battleground states: Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, to win the election. The post-debate landscape is much different.
In the post-debate world, more states are battleground states. According to the RCP electoral map, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota were toss-ups pre-debate, with Biden ahead by 2 to 3 points in all three. Maine and New Mexico are listed as Leans Biden, and New Jersey is a Likely Biden state. The only available post-debate poll here is from Virginia, where Biden and Trump are tied.
538 shows a slightly different story. The same Virginia poll is a tie. But a post-debate poll from New Hampshire has Trump up by +2. No new survey is available in Minnesota, but 538’s statistical averaging has Biden up by only +1. In Maine, the most recent poll from April had Trump up by +1 in a 5-way race.
The big surprise is New Jersey. In the most recent pre-debate poll in the Garden State, Trump is up by +1. In a post-debate poll from the GOP United 2024 Pac, Trump and Biden are tied in a 5-way race. Even Biden’s internal polling shows Trump ahead by +1.
It gets worse for Biden. According to Puck News, which supposedly received some leaked internal post-debate Democrat polling data, things are not looking good. Biden’s post-debate vote share declined by 0.8 points nationally. At the same time, 69% of voters are concerned about his age, and 52% of Biden voters want him to get out of the race. According to the Democrat poll, Joe is trailing in Michigan and Pennsylvania by roughly 7 points each and by 0.5 points in New Mexico.
New Mexico was not considered a battleground state until this surfaced. The RCP election map still has it listed as Leans Biden, and their most recent poll from March has Joe up by +7. Although 538 had a Republican-funded survey showing Biden up by just +1, the latest independent poll had him up by +7.
So, where does that leave us? The Democrats can probably write off Georgia and North Carolina as battleground states, and maybe Arizona and Nevada. The new battleground states are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia, all considered Biden territory. Trump is no longer forced to win one of the three battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. If he wins just one of the other six, he is President. If Trump wins them all, that would be 360 electoral votes to 174 for Biden.
The most interesting takeaway from The Democrat post-debate report is their internal polling shows that in a two-way race between Trump and other Democrats, only Gretchen Whitmer and Pete Buttigieg can win enough battleground states to get elected. Unfortunately for them, it is not a two-way race.
I doubt Biden’s popularity, or that of Democrats, will recover before the election. His age and mental abilities are not going to improve. Grocery and fuel prices are unlikely to get much better. Mass illegal immigration and all the problems that go with it are not going away. Worse, the FBI is worried there could be a terrorist attack inside the country before the election. If that happens, even deep blue states could turn red.
As I have written many times, I don’t think any poll is close to 100% accurate. There are too many variables. Even the polling averages are usually wrong. However, I believe the polls can give us some idea of what the voters are thinking and if there is a trend in some direction. Right now, the trend shows that Trump is up and Biden down.
Is a Trump landslide coming? Although the election is still four months away and anything is possible, it is starting to look as though it might happen.
Folks, until the end of July, you can download a free digital copy of Truce, my fictional account of the WW1 Christmas Truce of 1914. Just click here. The Bartender Who Saved Christmas, an e-book version of grown-up Christmas stories, is also available at a discount. If you want a paperback copy of Bartender, which includes Truce, click here.
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Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.
