The Red Wave Approaches: The Governors

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In every poll mentioned, the economy/inflation, or some variation, is the top issue.  

Arizona: Lake-R vs. Hobbs-D

Arizona party affiliation is 39-D, 40-R, 21-I.

In the Susquehanna poll, Lake has a 5-point advantage in favorability over Hobbs.

In the Progress poll, Lake has a 7-point advantage in favorability.

Hobbs has two significant problems.  Obviously, one is favorability.  The other: She is polling about 2–3 points behind Lake with 4–5% undecided, which will mostly break Republican.

Prediction: Lake by 7.

Georgia: Kemp-R vs. Abrams-D.  The Real Clear Politics average has Kemp up by roughly 7-points.  Game over.  Abrams should have kept her day job as President of Earth.

Kansas: Kelly-D vs. Schmidt-R

Joe Biden’s job approval is underwater big time at 36/58 or -22.  Kansas party affiliation is 31-D, 46-R, 23-I.

Okay, we have one poll taken in September.  Biden is highly unpopular.  The most important issue is the economy at 48%.  There are 8% undecided, and Kelly is up by only two in a very red state.

Prediction: Schmidt by 6 or more.

Michigan: Whitmer-D vs. Dixon-R

Folks, I did not want to do Michigan.  The polls look awfully blue, and I am not a fan of Whitmer.  Unfortunately, this is what I get for watching Tucker Carlson.

The polling error in 2020 was Biden +5%.  Michigan party affiliation is 47-D, 34-R, 19-I.

According to Cygnal, Whitmer’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 51/47, or +4, while Dixon’s ratings are 44/50, or -6.

CNN has Whitmer’s favorability at 52/46, or +6.  Dixon’s is 39/49 or -10.

Trafalgar’s results are remarkable, considering that 55% of the respondents are Democrats.  But I want to see some near-election confirmation before I fly off searching for Cocoa Puffs.

Prediction for now: The Gretch squeaks by thanks to 20,000 votes from the cemeteries of Detroit.  Her Chucky doll is pleased.

New Mexico:  Grisham-D vs. Ronchetti-R

New Mexico party affiliation is 48-D, 38-R, 15-I.  The two decent polls are shown above.  The rest are garbage.  Unfortunately, Emerson is from early September.  

The economy is the most important issue by 20 points over abortion.  And in both polls, there are enough undecided voters to put the outcome in doubt.

Trust in the wave.  Ronchetti by 2.

Nevada: Sisolak-D vs. Lombardo-R

Nevada party affiliation, including leaners, is 46-D, 37-R, 18-I.

The Progress poll has Lombardo’s favorable/unfavorable rating at 44/46, or -2, while Sisolak is at 44/53, or -9.  If Sisolak’s unfavorability is actually 53%, he has a problem.  There is also a question of how many votes the minor parties will siphon off.

Prediction: Lombardo by 5.

Pennsylvania: Shapiro-D vs. Mastriano-R

The 2020 polling error was Biden +4%.  Pennsylvania party affiliation is 46-D, 39-R, 15-I.

There is one potentially significant problem with the Pennsylvania polls.  Note that the CBS poll has no undecided voters.  Rasmussen has 10% undecided.  Although CNN has only 1% undecided, 9% claimed they might change their mind.  The USA Today poll from September 30 has 13% undecided, and the Emerson Poll from September 26 has 8% undecided, with Shapiro up by 11 points and 10 points, respectively.  So the big question with both CBS and CNN is, were the people polled forced to make a choice for governor?

If I read this correctly, those large numbers of undecided voters are simply reluctant to say whom they are voting for.  What we may be seeing is the red wave lurking beneath the surface.  And if Rasmussen is correct, most of their 10% undecided may vote Republican.

Prediction: Mastriano, in a red wave upset.

New York: Hochul-D vs. Zeldin-R

Remember that New York’s party affiliation is 53-D, 28-R, 19-I.  Also, New York City is saturated by propaganda from Pravda on the Hudson, AKA the New York Times, which makes Zeldin’s job really difficult.

Prediction: Despite the wave, Hochul wins.

Oklahoma: Hofmeister-D vs. Stitt-R

Of the two most recent polls, one has only 301 respondents with a 5.6% sampling error.  Why bother?  Oklahoma’s party affiliation is 40-D, 45-R, 15-I.  The 2020 polling error was Biden +6%, and a red wave is coming.

Prediction: Stitt wins.

Oregon: Kotek-D vs. Drazan-R vs. Johnson-I

The 2020 polling error was actually Biden -4%.  Oregon party affiliation is 47-D, 32-R, 21-I.

According to the Progress poll, Kotek has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 40/51, or -11, while Drazan’s ratings are 42/44, and Johnson’s are in the basement at -28.  The economy is the top issue at 35%, while crime is second at 19%.

Hoffman has Drazan’s favorable/unfavorable split at 35/32, or +3.  Kotek’s favorability is 31/43, or -12.  Johnson’s is 23/32, or -9.

Although the polls are close, and Oregon is dark blue, I believe that the favorability numbers and the importance of crime as an issue tell us where this race is going.

Prediction: Drazan by 4.

Wisconsin: Evers-D vs. Michels-R

Notes:  Although Beglinger-I has ceased campaigning, she is still on the ballot.  The presidential polling error in 2020 was Biden +6%.  The Wisconsin party affiliation is 42-D, 42-R, 16-I.

I have two observations.  In the CNN poll, 4% said they might change their mind.  In the Marquette poll, can we believe that 4% are voting for Beglinger?

Prediction: The wave rises.  Michels by 4.

Next, the Senate.

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